PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 15 - 5 - 2
Race 2:   1 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 3:   8 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   4 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 5:   3 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 6:   4 - 10 - 8 - 1
Race 7:   1 - 11 - 3 - 6
Race 8:   5 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 9:   2B - 13 - 6 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 4: TAP THE FAITH (#4)

The new face in this group is Self Isolation (#6), who is shown as the lone speed on the Pace Projector in a situation favoring the front-runner. She’s making her first start since being purchased at auction by David Jacobson for $105k and seems appropriately spotted in this N2X allowance. My problem is that both of her dirt victories have come at Los Alamitos, and it’s sometimes hard to trust form from that track to be translated elsewhere. She’s been more of a turf horse throughout her career, and I wonder how she’ll fare over this deep Aqueduct dirt course. Her main rival appears to be the returning Its Cold in Dehere (#3). Linda Rice has solid statistics off layoffs of this type going back 5 years, but this mare does have a right to need a start after so much time away. The good news is that the one-mile distance seems perfect for her after she never got the chance to try it last winter. I’m going in a different direction to a horse who still has some upside. Tap the Faith (#4) obviously needs to improve on her best speed figures to beat this field. Yet she’s still a lightly raced 3-year-old who has shown promise at times. While she benefited from a favorable rail path, I still think she ran well to break her maiden as a 2-year-old before racing greenly against better company in the Demoiselle. She just didn’t appear to handle sloppy tracks in her first two starts of the season, but I liked her last win at Monmouth. She was obviously facing weaker company, but she ranged up confidently on the turn and won more convincingly than the margin would suggest. She’s had plenty of time to mature now and may be ready to take that next step forward.

WIN: #4 Tap the Faith, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7: NOBLE EMOTION (#1)

Thin White Duke (#11) has to be considered the horse to beat off his performances two and three back at Saratoga. He signaled his improvement with that close third-place finish behind Golden Pal at odds of 30-1 in the G3 Troy. Yet he then validated that form next time when winning a slightly softer Lucky Coin Stakes. He got great rides and trips on both occasions, but things didn't work out as well last time in the Belmont Turf Sprint. He was always too far back over a yielding course where the winner dominated up front. He’s clearly better than that and can rebound here if any pace develops. My top pick is Noble Emotion (#1) , who should get the right trip from his inside post position. He rebounded from a disappointing effort at Saratoga in July to win a tight photo at this level a month later. However, he was unable to replicate that form at Woodbine last time when defeated by a rival he had beaten in his prior start. That said, he didn’t get the best trip that day as he was out of position early before launching a mild premature bid that quickly flattened out. I think he’ll be more aggressively handled from the rail here as he’s reunited with Jose Ortiz. The other horse that I would use is Maxwell Esquire (#3). He started off his 5-year-old season the right way, winning at this level. Things have gone awry since then, but he hasn’t really had a fair chance in either start since getting claimed by Mike Maker. He was going too far with a wide trip two back, and last time couldn’t close in a speed-dominated race. He may fare better here if he gets some pace up front.

WIN: #1 Noble Emotion, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 3,11

RACE 8: MIA BEA STAR (#5)

I don’t want to simply concede this race to Know It All Audrey (#1), who figures to be the prohibitive favorite. She was meeting a tougher rival last time when battling the improved Sweet Mystery all the way to the wire. However, she also got a great trip stalking a moderate pace. Now she’s drawn the rail in a race featuring some other pace rivals, so it’s no guarantee that she’ll be able to clear off to the front end. She’s obviously the one to beat, but she’ll be a very short price with Irad Ortiz retaining the mount. I see two possible alternatives. One of those is Chaysenbryn (#3), who returns from a brief layoff after finishing second in her lone start at Saratoga. She’s met weaker company in both starts since the claim by Mertkan Kantarmaci, but she’s held her form reasonably well. She typically does her best work over this Aqueduct surface, but she does have to prove she can handle the turnback to 7 furlongs. My top pick is Mia Bea Star (#5). I know this barn can be tough to trust, but she showed some signs of turning her form around last time out. She did finish 11 lengths behind Know It All Audrey, but she had the much tougher trip, racing far behind a moderate pace before rallying wide on the turn. She had been in great form earlier this summer before she ran poorly at Saratoga three back. However, it seems like she’s coming back around and now she gets a significant rider upgrade to Javier Castellano in a race that is supposed to feature some pace.

WIN: #5 Mia Bea Star, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 3