PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 3 - 6 - 1/1A
Race 2:   6 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 3:   4 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 4:   5 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 5:   2 - 8 - 7 - 3
Race 6:   4 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 7:   4 - 9 - 6 - 5
Race 8:   8 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 9:   8 - 9 - 4 - 10

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 5

Two Thirty Give (#8) is probably the horse to beat as he drops down slightly out of a tougher spot two weeks ago. However, I’m just not convinced this horse is going to get back into top form. He’s a veteran 9-year-old who was good for a long time, but he just seems to have lost a step this year. He didn’t run that badly last time after chasing an honest pace, but he’s just lacked finish in all of his recent starts, and I don’t anticipate that changing for Orlando Noda. His tactical speed helps, but he could just take money by default with Irad Ortiz aboard. Durkin’s Call (#7) is the most obvious alternative to consider, but he seems to have trouble winning races. He’s competed at a variety of class levels this year, and he’s settled for minor awards even when he shows up with his better efforts. I trust him a little more than the morning line favorite, but his lack of early speed could work against him. My top pick is Pit Boss (#2). It might appear that he’s gone off form in recent starts, but circumstances just haven’t been in his favor. He was placed over his head against a pretty tough starter optional claiming field two back, and had little chance, especially after racing along the rail in a race dominated by outside movers. Then last time he threw his rider at the start. He's run plenty of competitive races and his tactical speed should play well in a race where the pace scenario looks a bit murky. I also like him getting back to one turn, since he’s run his best races going this shorter trip.

Fair Value:
#2 PIT BOSS, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7

It’s hard to trust anyone in this starter allowance affair, especially the horse that I pegged as the slight morning line favorite. Charging (#5) obviously has races that would beat this field, but his last couple of turf efforts were pretty dismal, and he failed to show up on dirt last time when dropped in against claimers for the first time. Perhaps getting back to a turf sprint for new trainer Tom Morley will wake him up, as he has had the excuses for contesting fast paces in those two prior turf sprints. I’m just concerned that he went the wrong way for Brad Cox, so it might be hard for this barn to resurrect him. Sainthoodforbrian (#6) also comes into this with somewhat inconsistent form, though at least he ran pretty well in his most recent turf sprint on July 14. He was reserved off the pace that day, and came with a good late run to get up for third. The winner of that race, Maya Prince, is a pretty talented turf sprinter, so it was a legitimate performance. Majestic Johnson (#9) is a wild card in this field, as he’s been claimed back by Linda Rice and the same owner who lost him for $40k over a year ago at Saratoga. He ran a decent race off the layoff for Michelle Nevin last time, as he was briefly steadied before altering course in mid-stretch. I think he can step forward here second off the layoff, but is stepping up into a slightly tougher spot. My top pick is Buckortwo (#4). He obviously wanted no part of 9 furlongs last time in a race that not only collapsed by was also dominated by horses moving outside in the stretch. Furthermore, he was wheeling back on just 6 days’ rest, so I’m willing to forgive that effort. He had run pretty well at this level in his most recent turf sprint on June 24, staying on at the end in a race that was dominated by forward runners. I think there’s some evidence that he’s improved overall as a racehorse this year, but that improvement is somewhat obscured by running in the wrong spots or under the wrong circumstances. He gets a rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche for underrated turf sprint trainer Michelle Nevin.

Fair Value:
#4 BUCKORTWO, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8

Cupid’s Heart (#6) is typically popular with the bettors, and she figures to take money again. She’s been the odds-on favorite in 3 of her 4 attempts at this N1X allowance level, yet she remains winless at these conditions. That’s not to suggest she hasn’t run well, as she was probably best two back when closing belatedly after a poor start. Few in this field are as naturally talented as her, but she’s not the most reliable filly and I’m also not convinced that she’s best at this one-mile distance. I much prefer her main rival Portage (#8), who seems better suited to this trip. Portage is stretching out from a six-furlong event, but that race was arguably too short for her, as she got outrun through the early stages and was left with too much ground to make up in a speed-dominated affair. She had previously broken her maiden at 7 furlongs, beating a next-out winner. She had also run admirably going a mile in her first start for Linda Rice, fading to third but proceeding to gallop out strongly past the field. I think she’s suited to these conditions and she’s drawn well outside of her other pace rivals. Furthermore, Linda Rice is 24 for 73 (33%, $2.58 ROI) going from sprints to routes in dirt allowance races over the past 5 years. Fancy Azteca (#1) has some things to prove after getting eased on the backstretch in her most recent start at Saratoga. It’s a good sign that she returned to the work tab just two weeks later, and now she’s entered back at the same level. However, it’s unclear if she really wants to go this far. Toned Up (#4) is a little more interesting at a better price. She’s shown subtle improvement since the claim by Rob Atras. She’s been racing around two turns in paceless events at Saratoga, and I think she could appreciate this turnback to a mile where the pace is likely to be a bit quicker. She’s one to include underneath.

Fair Value:
#8 PORTAGE, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 9

Vince the Prince (#4) finished ahead of a few rivals he meets again here in that July 26 maiden claiming event at Saratoga. He was contesting an honest pace that day and had a right to get tired behind superior winner Indian Mischief, who returned to beat winners in a much tougher spot in his next start. This horse’s tactical speed figures to be an asset once again here, and he’s a logical contender, even if not exactly the most interesting horse to recommend. I want two alternatives. One of those is Hari (#9), who has the most upside of anyone in this field as a second time starter. His debut really isn’t as bad as the result might suggest. He was conservatively ridden early, allowed to drop far back in the opening furlongs. He commenced a rally at the quarter pole, but ran into some traffic and lost momentum while altering course in the lane. I expect him to run better here, but his lack of speed is a minor concern in this field. My top pick is Waflr (#8), who should be the best price of those I’m considering. He had legitimate trouble on debut at Belmont in May, getting shuffled out of the race at the top of the stretch after chasing some honest fractions. He ran deceptively well sprinting in his second start, closing belatedly in a race dominated towards the front. He didn’t fare as well last time when stretched back out, but the outside post position did him no favors. He actually broke well and was second under the wire the first time, but lost valuable position as Trevor McCarthy attempted to save ground into the clubhouse turn. I’m pretty sure he’s better than he’s shown to date, and perhaps this is a spot where he can finally put it together.

Fair Value:
#8 WAFLR, at 6-1 or greater