PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 2:   10 - 11 - 1 - 12
Race 3:   3 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 4:   9 - 16 - 11 - 14
Race 5:   4 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 11 - 5
Race 7:   5 - 9 - 1 - 10
Race 8:   7 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 9:   8 - 3 - 10 - 12

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 3: CUPIDS GIRL (#3)

I don’t quite trust likely favorite Mommasgottarun (#6) to win her second race in a row as she moves up in class. She caught the right field last time at Saratoga when beating a weak group for trainer Brad Cox. Now she’s facing tougher rivals off the claim, and she’s generally done her best work when she’s a standout on paper. Dame Cinco (#5) has form to rival that of the favorite, but she’s making her first start off the claim for a barn that typically struggles on this circuit. She’s coming back on relatively short rest, so I won’t be surprised if she runs well again, but I would need a square price on her. I’m trying to beat these two with Cupids Girl (#3). It’s unclear how much pace aid this closer will receive, but I do think she’s catching a slightly softer starter allowance field than the those she’s faced in her last couple of starts. She made a nice late run for second at Saratoga two back, and last time just could never get involved in a race that was dominated towards the front. Aqueduct is generally kinder to off the pace types than Saratoga, and this filly usually gets dismissed at a fair price despite her solid record.

WIN: #3 Cupids Girl, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 8: PATTY H (#7)

Mosienko (#4) is the horse to beat once again as she continues to ascend the class ladder. However, I’m a little skeptical that this mare can continue her charmed run of success now that’s facing some legitimate open company foes. Putting aside that fast win at Saratoga two back, her other speed figures don’t exactly make her a standout in this group and she figures to be a short price. I’m also somewhat against her main rival Bank On Anna (#3). She got a perfect trip when catching a weak field in the Union Avenue last time. She is a 3-year-old who may just be improving now, but I think she may be a little overrated off that score. I’m trying to beat both of them with Patty H (#7). We haven’t seen her since the begging of January when she was making her first start off the claim for Tony Dutrow, and she never got a chance to deliver a true effort that day after stumbling badly at the start. Her form prior to that had been pretty strong, as she had twice bested the hard-knocking Easy to Bless in the summer and fall of 2021. Plenty of time has passed since then, but she isn’t catching a particularly tough field for this level off the layoff and she’s drawn well outside as the potential controlling speed. I would also use Movie Moxy (#6), who faced a better field at this level last time and appeared to take a step in the right direction after having lost her form earlier this year.

WIN: #7 Patty H, 7-2 or greater
USE: 4,6