by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 1 - 4 - 8
Race 2:   1 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 3:   2 - 6 - 7 - 8
Race 4:   5 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 5:   4 - 8 - 7 - 1
Race 6:   1 - 6 - 5 - 2/2B
Race 7:   5 - 1/1A - 3 - 6
Race 8:   7 - 8 - 6 - 1
Race 9:   7 - 6 - 8 - 1A
Race 10:   5 - 9 - 6 - 1

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

 
RACE 5

It’s fairly obvious that Gut Feeling (#7) will be tough to beat if he shows up with his top effort. Yet it’s awfully hard to trust him to do so given his dismal recent effort at Saratoga. That was his return from a 4-month layoff, and he stopped badly in the stretch after contesting the early pace. Richard Dutrow, Jr. is realistically dropping him in class, which might help to wake him up. Yet it’s possible that he just hasn’t maintained his form for the new barn after a series of layoffs. I think Michelle Giangiulio sends out a couple of interesting alternatives to the favorites. Inspector (#8) is perhaps the more logical one, as he ran pretty well going this distance last time. He chased an honest pace and just got tired through the stretch in a race that fell apart. Yet he wasn’t beaten very far by some decent horses, so I’m not too concerned about the rise in class. Her other horse Good Rapport (#4) is undoubtedly getting class relief. This 3-year-old has never won on the dirt, but he’s faced far superior rivals in all of his attempts on this surface. He met the likes of Tapit Trice and Slip Mahoney when trying dirt last winter, and more recently found himself in an unusually tougher $35k conditioned claimer at Saratoga. That may have been an off the turf affair, but there were legitimate dirt horses in there, including the top two finishers. The TimeformUS Race Rating was a 104, compared to a 94 for this race, so it’s a significant drop in class. His 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him competitive here. He was hard-ridden to show speed that day before fading, and I suspect Kendrick Carmouche will be a little more patient this time.

Fair Value:
#4 GOOD RAPPORT, at 7-2 or greater
 

RACE 6

Piccata Prince (#5) is probably the horse to beat based on his debut effort, in which he closed well for second, just unable to reel in a runner who had a little more experience. He was intended for turf that day, and got on the grass last time, only running to about the same level. I don’t mind him getting back to dirt here, though Linda Rice is just 7 for 61 (11%, $0.90 ROI) with maidens going from turf to dirt over the past 5 years. He makes sense, but doesn’t figure to be an appealing price. The Nice Guys Stables entry of Mikealicious (#2) and Where’s Chris (#2B) should also take money. Both sold as yearlings to Nice Guys for sums exceeding the allowable limit for this race, but are eligible due to subsequently reselling at auction for lower amounts, despite landing back with the original buyer. Mikealicious goes out for a barn whose firsters typically need a start, and Where’s Chris has much more of a turf pedigree. I’m more interested in second time starters. Stunnem (#6) has some upside for Ken McPeek after just getting a tour of the racetrack on debut. He was eased up in early stretch that day, and it feels like the connections might be more serious this time. He had trained decently into that unveiling. My top pick is Don Vino Vici (#1). The major downside with him is that he’s part of a 3-horse entry, but at least the two other parts don’t figure to attract as much support. He didn’t take much money on debut, but ran a fairly interesting race. He broke a bit slowly but got hustled from the inside to try to maintain forward position. He was actually within 2 lengths of the lead after a furlong, but then gradually dropped back through the pack, essentially taking himself out of the race. Having dropped back to nearly last at the quarter pole, Saez again asked him for some run and this time he responded, passing tired rivals while galloping through the wire with interest. There’s more ability here than the bare result suggests, but he needs to run a more professional race this time.

Fair Value:
#1 DON VINO VICI, at 7-2 or greater
 

RACE 7

I don’t have a major problem with the Christophe Clement entry, other than the fact that they figure to be a short price paired together. Dontlookbackatall (#1) is perhaps more trustworthy as she exits a strong outing at this level at Saratoga. Despite having such strong turf sprint form as a 2-year-old, she hadn’t tried a turf sprint as a 3-year-old until last time. She rallied well from off the pace to get up for second behind a talented winner, earning a field-best 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that performance will make her tough. Entrymate Lady Mia (#1A) also has credentials, having placed against multiple Group 1 winner Blue Rose Cen as a 2-year-old before narrowly losing a Group 3 in her juvenile finale in France. She was purchased at auction for $295k by Christophe Clement, but is now returning from a very long layoff. I do wonder if she may ultimately want to go a little farther than this. I’m taking one shot against this formidable duo with Georgees Spirit (#5). She exits the same race at Dontlookbackatall, but wasn’t nearly as effective, never able to launch a significant rally. I’m going to be somewhat forgiving of her, since she was trying to rally up the inside on the Mellon turf during a time when most of the running was done in outside paths far off the temporary rail. I think she’s better than that, and now she’s second off a layoff for Jorge Abreu, who doesn’t have the best numbers off layoffs. She showed real quality as a 2-year-old, and even ran deceptively well with a wide trip in her seasonal debut over this course back in April. She also figures to be a better price here than she was last time.

Fair Value:
#5 GEORGEES SPIRIT, at 7-2 or greater
 

RACE 8

Ghostly Girl (#6) is not exactly a winning type, having picked up 5 minor awards to go along with her lone victory. Yet she has run plenty of races that make her a strong fit at this level. She was bet down to favoritism in an off the turf race last time, but just couldn’t sustain her speed after unexpectedly finding herself on the lead. Now she’s been claimed by John Toscano, who is 13 for 75 (17%, $2.00 ROI) first off the claim over the past 5 years. She makes plenty of sense, but I wouldn’t want to lean on her at a short price. Among those who figure to take money, I’m a little more interested in Divine Cross (#8). She looked like a filly with potential when she broke her maiden narrowly going this distance at the end of her 2-year-old season. Things haven’t really panned out for her, and now she’s dropping in for a tag. She put in a decent effort prior to the layoff when fourth behind subsequent Busher winner Shidahbuti. She didn't show much in her return last time, but she still earned a competitive speed figure against a superior field. John Kimmel is 8 for 40 (20%, $2.07 ROI) second off a layoff of 150 to 300 days over 5 years. My top pick is a horse who might get unfairly ignored. My Girl Jal (#7) goes out for a low-profile barn, but she sports some competitive form. She was a huge price when she broke her maiden back in June and has gone off at massive odds in each start since then. Yet she’s also outrun those odds while racing well over her head. She held her own against a tougher field of starter allowance foes two back despite getting an awkward ride from the 7-pound bug rider. That’s a race that has produced 4 next-out winners. Then last time she got pushed wide on the turn when attempting to rally. Now she gets a significant rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche and drops into a realistic spot.

Fair Value:
#7 MY GIRL JAL, at 6-1 or greater
 

RACE 9

If Space Launch (#6) shows up with his good effort, he’s going to be very difficult for this field to beat. He’s a classy allowance type who is dropping into this conditioned claimer showing nothing but superior recent speed figures. Yet speed figures aren’t the be all and end all on turf, especially with horses moving between class levels. Space Launch has been a bit of a disappointment this year, and notably hasn’t crossed the wire first in nearly two years. Christophe Clement also doesn’t have that much success with this move. Over the past 5 years, he is 8 for 53 (15%, $0.87 ROI) with non-maidens making their first starts for a tag, suggesting that these types aren’t performing at a level commensurate with the amount of money they take. My Romeo Lima (#8) is one alternative to consider. He’s getting needed class relief after facing tougher allowance fields in recent starts. He’s coming off a layoff, but it wasn’t a planned one, as he was rained off the turf at least twice at Saratoga. His last performance two performances aren’t as bad as they look, since he was chasing a fast pace two back, and last time ran out of real estate going shorter. Yet he’s a forward type and there does appear to be some speed in this race, with the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. Such a scenario would help Our Country (#7), who might finally have a chance to get on the turf after being rained off the grass in two consecutive starts at Saratoga. He actually ran decently in both of those dirt races, but he’s clearly a better turf horse at this stage of his career. I thought he ran deceptively well in a few of those turf races earlier this year. He was compromised by a slow pace on May 11 at Belmont, and prior to that was closing belatedly in a few races at Gulfstream against legitimate competition. He’s another who isn’t exactly the most reliable win candidate, being so pace dependent. Yet he has a capable rider aboard, and he’s supposed to be the right price this time.

Fair Value:
#7 OUR COUNTRY, at 7-1 or greater
 

RACE 10

I’ve seen enough of the two experienced fillies who are likely to attract the most support in this state-bred maiden special weight. Cerretta (#1) and Voleuse (#2) both have credentials to break through at this level, but they have also had their fair share of chances to do so. Cerretta is still a maiden after 11 starts, and though she has found her niche as a turf sprinter, she’s continued to settle for minor awards in recent starts. I didn’t think she had much excuse to lose at Belmont back in June, or more recently in July at Saratoga. Voleuse may go off at an even shorter price with Irad Ortiz aboard. Yet I have trouble taking her as the favorite after she squandered an opportunity to win two back at Saratoga. She got a perfect trip in that July 22 affair, and just hung through the late stages. She did face males last time and may not have appreciated getting pinned to the rail, but she still had little to offer in the late stages. I want to focus on horses who are less exposed. There are a couple of interesting first time starters. Laurana (#9) is a little more obvious as she goes out for Christophe Clement, who is 8 for 27 (30%, $3.20 ROI) with 3-year-old and older first time starters in turf sprints over the past 5 years. She has pedigree to be a runner, as a half-sister to talented dirt horse Sioux as well as turf sprinters Epping Forest and Kokopelli.  Cherbourg (#6) doesn’t have as powerful connections in her corner, but she also has plenty of turf pedigree, being by English Channel out of a dam who won twice sprinting on turf in Great Britain. She’s also a half-sister to Twisted Filigree, a talented 2-year-old for George Weaver who recently won sprinting on turf. My top pick is a horse who has turf experience, yet remains unexposed on this surface. Shaman Princess (#5) tried the grass once in her most recent start at Saratoga. She got keyed up prior to the race, which is usually indicate of a horse that will show speed. After all, she’s been a one-dimensional frontrunner in her dirt races. Yet Manny Franco decided, or was under instructions, to rate her at all costs. This filly clearly wanted to do more through the opening furlongs, but was aggressively restrained. Perhaps that had something to do with the fact that her uncoupled stablemate Spooky Lady was the other speed, and went on to wire the field. This time Shaman Princess lands in a field without as much speed signed on, and she’s shown as the clear leader on the Pace Projector. She still has to prove she can handle turf, but she has some pedigree and might be better than she looks at first glance.

Fair Value:
#5 SHAMAN PRINCESS, at 6-1 or greater