PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   5 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 3:   3 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 4:   1 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 5:   1 - 9 - 7 - 12
Race 6:   2B - 4 - 2 - 1A - 9
Race 7:   2 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 8:   9 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 9:   7 - 3 - 12 - 9

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

I’m a little skeptical of Best Actor (#3), who could go favored here as he makes his third start off the layoff for Brad Cox. He ran pretty well in his June return at Ellis, but I wasn’t thrilled with his last effort, where he was beaten as the 6-5 favorite after getting a good trip. I’m just not convinced that he’s progressed since his 3-year-old season, and I believe the value lies elsewhere. My top pick is Kinetic Sky (#5), one of two runners who returns on short rest. This was once a potent move for the Dutrow barn, and I like that he’s doing it after the horse returned from a brief freshening. He ran a strange race off the layoff last time, when he looked like he was spinning his wheels in upper stretch before hitting his best stride late. That distance was on the short side for him, and I think we’re going to see a more complete effort on the stretch-out to his preferred one-mile trip. Sheriff Bianco (#4) is the other horse making a quick turnaround. This is a good move for Linda Rice, and the horse was briefly held up behind runners on the turn last time before ultimately shaking loose with plenty of time. He tends to give a solid account of himself, but it’s been a while sine he’s won a race. There isn’t an abundance of pace in here, which could help Uncle Moonlight (#6). He makes his first start off the claim for a barn that doesn’t claim many horses. He was pretty game to fight back inside of the classy Accretive last time, and should benefit from that effort now that he’s second off a layoff. I would just need a price to support him against a field of this quality.

Fair Value:
#5 KINETIC SKY, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 3

I’m somewhat against Lookin At Roses (#5), who figures to take money with Irad Ortiz taking the mount for Parx-based connections. Guadalupe Preciado hasn’t had much success with NYRA starters in a limited sample, and I’m not convinced that the horse is going to bring that Parx form to his circuit. His races Parx are generally superior to his efforts anywhere else. I believe the one to beat is Mystic Night (#7). This horse just gets some significant class relief coming out of tougher optional claimers where he faced the likes of Accretive and Tonal Impact. Mertkan Kantarmaci is underrated off the claim, and the horse has run well at this venue in the past. Though, he hasn’t won a race in nearly 18 months. Portos (#1) is another who hasn’t visited the winner’s circle in a while, achieving his last victory in April 2021. He ran well in a similar spot at Saratoga on Aug. 2 and will be finishing late, though the lack of pace in here is a minor concern. My top pick is Higher Quality (#3). Some may overlook this gelding due to the low-profile connections, but he’s been steadily improving since getting claimed by this outfit. Naipaul Chatterpaul is in the midst of a relatively strong season, getting many price horses to outrun their odds. I loved the way this guy dug in and kicked for home in the final eighth last time to run down a loose leader at Pimlico. This spot is tougher, but his tactical speed should play well here. He’s best at this 9-furlong distance and the price should be fair.

Fair Value:
#3 HIGHER QUALITY, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 4

I’m getting a little tired of Kuramata (#2), who has generally been a bit of a disappointment this season. He got a good trip off the layoff on July 30, but was unable to turn away Jerry the Nipper, who came back on him to claim the victory. Then last time he again had everything go his way, sitting on top of a moderate pace, but couldn’t hold off a pair of closers. Perhaps turning back to a mile will suit him, but I didn’t want to default to him at a short price. Among the most talented alternatives is Winfromwithin (#6), but he has some questions to answer as he returns from a layoff. This horse’s best race will surely make him tough to beat, but he hasn’t been seen since February, and now returns with an apprentice rider who hasn’t had much success on turf. It’s not as if he projects to get things his own way up front, either, given the presence of Call Me Harry (#7). That runner makes his first start off the claim for Richard Dutrow and Michael Dubb, and does his best running on the front end. That might benefit Dutrow’s other runner Duke of Hazzard (#4), but he strikes me as a “last time was the time” type of horse. He got sent off at an overlaid price that day after having a legitimate excuse in his prior start. He also won that race with an absolutely perfect trip. He has back races to be pretty tough in this spot as well, but his form is exposed now. My top pick is Cazadero (#1), and I’m happy that his entrymate will have to scratch for another spot on Friday, since he’ll be a bigger price on his own. This sprinter stretches out to a mile for the first time, but he closed deceptively well into a slow pace going 7 furlongs two back. Then last time he again couldn’t make much of an impact trying to close into a moderate pace, but Thin White Duke returned from a similar trip in that spot to win the Harvey Pack in his next start. Cazadero previously ran his best dirt race of his career going 7 furlongs, and typically more stamina is required on that surface, so a mile on grass shouldn’t be an issue. There’s plenty of speed in here to set up his late run, and he figures to drift up off that morning line for the entry.

Fair Value:
#1 CAZADERO, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7

Francesco Clemente (#8) is the real wild card in this optional claimer, as one of two Chad Brown runners in the race. He figures to attract plenty of support as he switches into this barn, especially catching a field that didn’t come up quite as tough as it could have for the level. He looked like a very promising sort when he was unveiled last year, winning his first three races impressively. Yet he was a bit green off the layoff at Goodwood, drifting off the final bend before rallying. He then disappointed last time at Royal Ascot against better. He obviously has talent, but he tends to break very slowly in his races, and that could be an issue here. Brown’s other entrant Exact Estimate (#1) was somewhat against the flow last time, stalking the pace in a race where the speed collapsed. Another horse involved in the pace, Saratoga Flash, returned to win at Kentucky Downs with a huge speed figure. I just still don’t love this colt’s prior form, and it’s not as if he’s going to be some big price with Irad Ortiz riding. Daunt (#4) seems fairly logical as he gets class relief coming out of a pair of marathon graded stakes attempts. He’s versatile enough to handle this shorter distance, but he just doesn’t visit the winner’s circle that often and his form is now exposed. My top pick is Tide of the Sea (#2). Many regard this 7-year-old as a pure marathoner, but he’s actually run some of his better races going a bit shorter. His Fort Marcy effort going this distance, for which he earned a 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure, would make him awfully tough against this field. He didn’t even run that badly to hang on for seventh after running off in the Belmont Gold Cup, so he’s been in strong form this year. I’m hoping Katie Davis takes no prisoners on the front end once again, since there doesn’t appear to be much other speed signed on.

Fair Value:
#2 TIDE OF THE SEA, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 8

I’m willing to take a shot against Perfect Munnings (#5) as he makes his first start off the claim for Steve Asmussen. Linda Rice was in the midst of a stellar Saratoga meet when he ran that huge race off the layoff last time. The horse also had no serious competition that day, as he returned to form in a $25k claimer full of overmatched rivals. This spot is much more competitive, and it’s not as if this runner has always been the most consistent sort. It wouldn’t be the first time he followed up a career-best speed figure with a regression. Mariachi (#4) is among the more interesting alternatives. He ran well to win going this distance two back at Saratoga, but he wasn’t beating much that day. He was asked to go the wrong distance last time, and his early speed makes him dangerous on the turnback. I’m just not quite sure where he stands from a quality standpoint against a field like this. I have a similar view of Radio Red (#6), who should appreciate cutting back from 7 furlongs to this shorter trip. I won’t fault him for failing to hold second last time, as he at least tried to win the race going after the winner at the quarter pole. His form has been strong since returning in May and he makes sense here. My top pick is Brew Pub (#9). He feels like the type who could fly under the radar in this competitive affair. I don’t want to hold that poor result against him last time, as he was facing tougher rivals in a race that lacked pace. His prior form makes him a strong fit against this field, and the outside draw should give Junior Alvarado some options. Some will fault him for not being a winning type, but he’s achieved all 3 of his victories at Aqueduct and has already won at the level.

Fair Value:
#9 BREW PUB, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 9

Screw Loose (#3) drew a much better post position than many of the other primarily contenders in this maiden claiming finale. The major question for this Mark Hennig trainee is the distance, since he’s never raced beyond 7 furlong, and he didn’t even finish that well in his lone attempt going that distance. Yet he did run the best race of his career in his most recent turf start on July 8, when he was unlucky not to win after getting shuffled back in traffic on the far turn. He came with a good late run, but just had too much ground to make up. That late rally was also a bit of an optical illusion, as the entire field was coming together at the end after the winner carved out an extremely fast pace. Zapruder (#9) will also take money with Irad Ortiz aboard as this gelding makes his first start off the claim for Joe Sharp. Perhaps he’ll do better for the new barn, but I find it tough to take any kind of short price on this plodder. He looked like a horse with potential early in his career, but he just never developed or learned through experience. He tends to race sluggishly through the early stages, and lacks any turn of foot. The race would get a little more interesting if one or both AE entrants drew into the field. I’m mildly intrigued by Just for Luck (#13), who closed well for second behind a superior rival in his last turf race. He also put in a decent effort off the trainer switch to Steve Asmussen on dirt last time, suggesting he’s maintained solid form. My top pick is Utamaro (#7). This Linda Rice gelding deserves another chance on turf after getting an educational run against a stronger field in his lone start on this surface. He was ridden pretty conservatively that day, allowed to drop back early before never getting asked for much run through the lane. He has subsequently run about as well in two starts on the dirt, and did finish with some interest last time on the class drop. However, he’s likely more of a turf horse as a son of Cairo Prince. I like him getting back on the grass at this level, and I don’t mind the rider switch to Manny Franco, who should be a good fit for this grinding type. It appears as if there is sufficient pace in here to set up his late run.

Fair Value:
#7 UTAMARO, at 4-1 or greater