PICKS

Race 1:   10 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 2:   4 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 3:   7 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   4 - 2 - 3 - 7
Race 5:   3 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 6:   9 - 11 - 1 - 7
Race 7:   12 - 4 - 13 - 14
Race 8:   2 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 9:   2 - 9 - 3 - 4

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 5: SILVER SKILLET (#3)

I’m not trying to beat second time starter Silver Skillet (#3), who caught a solid field on debut at the Spa and did some good things despite finishing off the board. She was shuffled back in the early stages and found herself in an awkward position heading down the backstretch. She raced in traffic and had to make a few moves to reach contention before flattening out late. Overall, the performance was better than it looks on paper. Christophe Clement is 5 for 12 (42%, $6.65 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters on dirt over 5 years. I expect her to show a bit more speed this time and anticipate a much better result. Disruption (#4) exits the same race and also has a right to step forward. She didn’t give as many positive signals, but did show early speed and could be forward again. Stonewall Star (#5) got a much smoother trip than my top pick in her debut. However, she did run pretty well, professionally slipping through inside on the turn before getting overhauled by a more experienced rival late. Horacio De Paz also has positive statistics with maiden second time starters on dirt. There are a few first time starters to consider, among which I’m most interested in La Conquistadora (#2). She’s got plenty of pedigree, by 15% juvenile debut sire Nyquist, out of a dam who has produced solid allowance types Masked Marauder and Runnin’ Ray. Caribbean Breeze (#9) is also bred to be a runner, as a half-sister to the stakes-placed Let Her Inspire U.

WIN: #3 Silver Skillet, at 9-5 or greater
USE: 2,5