PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 5 - 8
Race 3:   9 - 4
Race 4:   7 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 5:   3 - 16 - 10 - 7
Race 6:   11 - 9 - 10 - 5
Race 7:   5 - 3 - 10 - 7
Race 8:   2 - 6 - 10 - 1
Race 9:   14 - 13 - 15 - 5
Race 10:   16 - 14 - 5 - 6

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

Many players will just default to class dropper Bowl of Cherries (#3) in this $25k claimer off her strong recent form. However, she has run two of her best races recently on the turf, and overall she seems to be slightly better on that surface. Her most recent dirt race at Monmouth on June 18 would likely make her a winner here, but she was very much with the race flow, ranging up outside on a day when you wanted to be wide. Yet the real concern is the drop, which seems counterintuitive for a horse who is ostensibly in career-best form. The most obvious alternative is Miss Domina (#1) as she gets back on dirt for the first time since August 2021. She did win that dirt race, an off the turf event at Saratoga, with a speed figure that would even make her competitive with the favorite. However, she was beating turf horses that day and never had to deal with kickback chasing outside. She could be in for a very different trip here breaking from the rail with speed to her outside. My top pick is Timed Out (#4). This mare has prior form on this circuit that would make competitive with the favorite. It’s been a while since she’s earned those types of speed figures, but she does appear to be rounding back into form lately. She was game in defeat at Finger Lakes two back, and then last time was a little unlucky not to win in a similar spot at Saratoga. She broke a step slowly, got keen down the backstretch, and had to alter course while trying to split rivals in the lane as the winner got a clear run outside. She now makes her first start off the claim for a different barn and figures to be a fair price with a low-profile rider named.

Fair Value:
#4 TIMED OUT, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 4

Among those who are likely to vie for favoritism in this N1X allowance, I’m most afraid of Sundaewithsandy (#5). This horse didn’t have his best chance last time when they elected to rate him off a moderate early tempo. He’s generally best when he can make the lead, and he figures to be hustled to the front by Kendrick Carmouche this time. His top speed figures arguably make him the horse to beat, but he has generally been most effective against New York-bred company.Set Sail (#4) finished one spot ahead of Sundaeswithsandy when they met in that Aug. 20 race, but he had all the best of it on the front end that day, using his rail draw to his advantage. It could be a different story this time with speeds drawn on each side of him. There are some lightly raced runners to consider, including Register (#3), who returns from a layoff following a poor effort in the Private Terms when last seen. He was game to break his maiden going a mile on Feb. 18 with a strong speed figure, but the form of that race hasn’t held up so well over time. He also benefited from a rail bias that day, so he has some things to prove in his return. Certified Loverboy (#6) is another 3-year-old with upside who figures to be a better price. He won his maiden race in an off the turf event last time, but he earned a solid speed figure in doing so, finishing powerfully through the final eighth. He had shown some talent early on, and appears to be improving with each start this year. Ray Handal is 7 for 37 (19%, $2.85 ROI) with last-out maiden winners on dirt over 5 years. My top pick is Luni Sima (#7). This 4-year-old has had more chances at this level than many others in here, but this didn’t come up as tough an N1X field as we typically see on this circuit. He obviously went off form when last seen in early summer, but he had run plenty of competitive races going back to last winter at Aqueduct. He handles the one-turn mile without issue, and has benefited from the this race being redrawn now that he gets the outside post position. I’m also intrigued that he’s returning as a new gelding, especially since he shows some strong workouts for his return.

Fair Value:
#7 LUNI SIMA, at 9-2 or greater
#6 CERTIFIED LOVERBOY, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 8

I had a tough time with this $10k claimer. David Jacobson sends out another class dropper here in Joker Boy (#6), who could go off as the favorite despite failing to hit the board in his three starts for this barn. He’s been a bit of a disappointment, but he’s also been in much tougher spots recently and might just be getting the class relief that he needs. I trust him more than some other potential short prices. Mister J T (#7) has to prove that he can bring his mid-Atlantic form to New York for a barn that hasn’t yet had much success here since returning. Cousin Andrew (#8) is in a similar boat, and he was beating up on weaker competition earlier in the summer. Bourbon’s Hope (#10) goes out for the dangerous Linda Rice barn, and he did run pretty well last time at this level. Yet he was a voided claim out of that race, and now has some other speed to deal with here. My top pick is Winning Drive (#2). He obviously lacks the back class of some others in here, but they’re all running for the $10k tag and he’s proven he belongs at this level. His recent speed figures are a bit light, but he ran better than the result indicates last time. That race was dominated on the front end on Aug. 30, a day that featured a strong speed bias on the main track. He actually did well to rally past some rivals in the stretch. I think he’s subtly been rounding into better form recently for the underrated Kantarmaci barn. It’s possible that this pace could heat up, and he figures to be finishing well at a square price.

Fair Value:
#2 WINNING DRIVE, at 8-1 or greater