by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 6 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 3: 6 - 1A - 5 - 2
Race 4: 5 - 1 - 9 - 10
Race 5: 2 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 6: 6 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 7: 11 - 7 - 12 - 9
Race 8: 6 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 9: 5 - 12 - 8 - 7
RACE 2: METAPHORICAL (#6)
The aptly named pair of There Goes Jose and There He Goes is likely to vie for favoritism in this second race. The Danny Gargan trainee may be the more dangerous of the two since he projects to be the controlling speed in this spot. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be well in front of this field in the early going, and he used those front-running tactics to register an emphatic maiden victory in mid-February. That was his first start off a trainer switch back to Danny Gargan and he will be very dangerous here if he replicates that effort. His similarly named counterpart brings an opposite running style to the proceedings, as There Goes Jose prefers to drop well off the pace and come with a late rally. He has run quite well be second in each of his last two starts, but his plodding style may put him in a difficult position this time. I prefer a different horse coming out of the Mar. 10 race that There Goes Jose exits. Metaphorical broke a step slowly that day and was squeezed back between horses heading into the clubhouse turn. That early trouble was especially detrimental for a horse who typically races up close to the pace. Metaphorical made a futile wide rally to briefly reach contention on the far turn before understandably fading in the lane. He should appreciate the turnback to a one-turn mile, and he may also like getting back on a fast track.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5
RACE 3: FLEET IRISH (#6)
The Jeffrey Englehart entry of You Tell Me and Playthatfunnymusic are likely to inherit the favorite’s role in this New York-bred claimer. Playthatfunnymusic is clearly the stronger half of the entry, but I don’t fully trust him at a short price. He has ran fairly well in his most recent start at this level, but his overall form has been inconsistent. My general viewpoint is that the short-priced options in this field are not that appealing. Stretch’s Stone is difficult to take off the negative claim by low-profile connections, and Here Comes Tommy has always been camera shy. Therefore, I’ve landed on Fleet Irish, who may be one of the longest shots on the board. This plodder has not hit the board since last fall, but he’s also been placed in some tough spots. He’s been overmatched in all of his starts since getting claimed by Rachel Sells and now he’s finally dropping to an appropriate level. Horses like Broadway Bay, Papa Shot, Horoscope, and the entire field in that Jan. 26 optional claimer are just better than the runners he’s facing in this straight claiming affair. He usually makes things difficult for himself by dropping so far off the pace in the early going, but he’s run some competitive speed figures despite racing over his head in recent starts. As long as this low-percentage rider can manage to work out a decent trip, he should outrun his odds.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,5
RACE 4: CANDY BOSS (#5)
The two fillies likely to attract the most support in this perplexing conditioned claimer are Got the Gist and Dynamite Kitten. Both have never won on turf, but are switching back to that surface after breaking their maidens on dirt this past winter. Got the Gist is the one the public may find more appealing, as she goes out for the dangerous Danny Gargan barn and is fresh off an easy score against inferior foes. She should appreciate the switch back to grass given her prior starts over that surface. Dynamite Kitten’s winter has been marked by a series polar opposite performances. She is coming off a dismal effort in a tough starter-allowance race, but she figures to benefit from the surface switch. I’m using both of these runners, but my top pick is Candy Boss at a more enticing price. This 1-for-22 mare may not look terribly appealing at first glance, but I think it’s important to isolate her turf performances. She’s made 7 starts on turf and has finished off the board every time, yet she has earned speed figures that make her the horse to beat. Her best races came for John Sadler in California, where she was actually competitive against classier N1X allowance company. She went off form for Sadler early last year and was transferred to the Luis Carvajal barn. For whatever reason, she has made only one start on turf in the past year, but that effort – against a tougher field – was good enough to make her a major player here. Distance is obviously a concern since she has been most successful sprinting, but I’m hoping Jorge Vargas makes use of her speed since the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the leaders.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,9,10,11
RACE 8: MAKEME DREAM (#6)
I have nothing against likely favorite Beautiful Lover. This filly has been highly regarded from the start. Sent off at 5-2 against a strong field in her debut at Gulfstream, she raced too close to a fast pace before making a premature move and fading. She was much more professional in her second start, as she kindly rated behind runners before exploding once pointed to daylight at the top of the stretch. She was not meeting a field of quality that day, but she earned a respectable speed figure and appears to have more to offer. It will take a serious performance to defeat her in this spot, and the only filly who seems capable of taking such a step forward is Makeme Dream. This Christophe Clement filly did not beat a strong field in her debut at Tampa in early February. However, I loved what I saw from her that day. She was willing throughout but never excessively keen while kindly rating inside of horses. She seamlessly moved into the lead approaching the quarter pole and hit another gear once Camacho asked her. Just as quickly as she accelerated, Camacho was already gearing her down as she approached the wire. This filly is an imposing physical presence and she has the pedigree to go along with her looks. Her second dam is Grade 1 Matriarch winner Dress to Thrill and her dam is by the great sire Galileo. Clement has done very well when hooking up with Eric Cancel over the past few seasons, winning at 22 percent (5 for 23) with a flashy ROI of $8.14. Perhaps more importantly, Clement has outstanding numbers with last-out debut winners making their second career starts on the turf. Over the past 5 years, he is 10 for 27 (37 percent, $2.94 ROI) and within that sample he is 6 for 13 at NYRA tracks.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with 1,2,5
RACE 9: LONE PIONEER (#5)
Cube and Red Mule figure to vie for favoritism in this finale as the both ship up from the Fair Grounds. I prefer the former runner as he switches into the barn of Dermot Magner. He ran the better race on March 7 as he made a decisive move to the lead at the eighth pole before getting nosed out for the victory. This trainer switch to Magner does not strike me as a major negative in the same way that Red Mule’s move away from Joe Sharp does. Sharp is one of the best turf sprint trainers in the country, whereas Gary Contessa’s barn has been struggling in recent months. They’re the two most formidable players, but there are other things going on in this race. A few horses are trying the turf for the first time, and the one that interests me most is Lone Pioneer. This gelding certainly has the pedigree to handle the surface switch as a son of Pioneerof the Nile out of a dam who has produced 6-time turf winner Lion in Wait. She is the only serious turf horse in the immediate female family, but his third dam is Aquilegia, a daughter of the blue-hen mare Courtly Dee. She produced multiple Group 1-placed turfer Bertolini among other turf performers. Lone Pioneer has a way of going that should translate well to turf, and his last two starts suggest that he as significantly improved off the trainer switch to Rob Atras. Despite possessing a pedigree that suggests he should handle route distances, this turnback to 6 furlongs may actually work in his favor, since he’s done best over shorter distances on dirt.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 7,8,12