by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 2: 1 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 3: 4 - 1/1A - 5 - 2
Race 4: 5 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 5: 9 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 6: 7 - 8 - 5 - 2
Race 7: 7 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 8: 9 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 9: 7 - 3 - 5 - 9
RACE 2: CANIFORM (#1)
Casigordo is the horse as he makes his third start in the span of just 18 days. He most recently won a conditioned $12,500 claimer at Parx while making a late run to just get up at the wire over a group of inferior rivals. His best effort would probably beat this field, but he’s been somewhat inconsistent since returning for Jacobson this year. That said, I’m more enthusiastic about his chances than those of fellow short price Afleet Martini, who did not run well off the claim last time and beat a very weak field two back. I think this race could be open to some bigger prices, and I’m taking a shot with Caniform. It’s noteworthy anytime a low-percentage trainer like Randi Persaud gets the red “Hot” designation added to his stats in TimeformUS PPs, and he was on a roll as of late last month. It’s yet to be seen if he can continue that momentum, but I do think there are some other reasons to like Caniform in this spot. This horse has plenty of back races that would make him tough here, and you can argue that some of the fields he’s faced recently are tougher than the one he’s in today. Furthermore, he was compromised by a slow pace last time in an effort that is not nearly as bad as it seems. Perhaps he’ll be ready to put forth an improved effort after this freshening.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,7
RACE 4: BENEFACTOR (#5)
The coupled entry of Hembree and Benevolence figures to go off at a very short price. The former makes his first start off the claim for the capable Ray Handal barn, and the latter just seems to always show up with a solid effort. What makes Hembree especially dangerous is his early speed, since this race lacks front-runners. The only horse that appears to have a serious chance to defeat him is Benefactor. This colt is switching back to dirt after a series of turf and synthetic starts. His dirt races are somewhat buried earlier in his career, but he actually ran quite well in all of them. He was overmatched last October behind the talented C Z Rocket at Keeneland, but prior to that he had run well on the Gulfstream dirt for Todd Pletcher, even picking up a couple of stakes placings. At one time, he possessed the tactical speed to stick with a horse like Hembree early. Trainer Mike Maker is on a sensational run over the past few weeks at Aqueduct.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,6,7
RACE 7: READY TO ESCAPE (#7)
There are some intriguing first-time starters among this group, but I have go give the edge to those with experience. The horse to beat, and the runner that I would bet at anything around his 3-1 morning line, is Ready to Escape. The published running line does not do this colt’s debut performance justice. He was actually off about a length slowly and was hustled into position by Manny Franco in the first furlong. From there, he raced keenly before getting shuffled back in traffic coming to the top of the stretch. Ready to Escape was racing greenly through the first half-mile, carrying his head very high. However, once in the clear, he leveled off well in the final quarter-mile to run into third. Overall, the performance was much stronger than it seems, and I think this well-bred colt will be tough to beat in his second start. I’ll use him with a few others, including Surface Strike, who is bred for dirt and makes just his second start after a single turf start last summer, and Ferrad’s Party, who battled with Blewitt before getting sent to the sidelines. It will also be worth watching the board to monitor action on firsters Charlie McCoy (a half-brother to My Boy Tate) and A True Giant (a full brother to Giant Expectations).
Win: 7
Exacta: 7 with 1,2,5,8
RACE 8: FUNTASTIC (#9)
This race features the return of Voodoo Song, one of the major stories of the 2017 Saratoga meet after he reeled off 4 consecutive wins during the 7 weeks up at the Spa. His three-year-old campaign ended on a sour note as he failed to handle a soft turf course at Hawthorne in late October, and he makes his first start since then here. While he figures to play out as the main speed, there are some talented runners that should be pressing him early, including War Bond and Cerise’s Prince. He’s the horse to beat, but I think he could be vulnerable in this spot. I see two primary alternatives to the favorite. The more generous price of the two is Monster Bea, who returns to the Aqueduct turf, the site of his strong second-place finish to recent Artie Schiller winner Fire Away last November. His two runs since then have not gone well, but he did encounter soft turf at Fair Grounds and get a wide trip last time at Tampa. At his best, he’s clearly capable of winning, but he’s a somewhat unreliable horse. Therefore, I’ve made Funtastic my top pick. He has a recency edge on his main rivals and appears to be coming into this race in top shape. He ran well in a stakes here last November, finishing a narrow second to Small Bear. In his only start since then, he closed to be third into very slow early fractions (note the blue color-coded pace figures in PPs). I expect him to take a step forward out of that race, and he possesses a running style that should be well-suited to the likely pace scenario here.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 9 with 1,3 with 1,2,3,4,6