by David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 1/1A - 3 - 5
Race 2: 2 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 4 - 1A - 6
Race 4: 10 - 2 - 9 - 11
Race 5: 1 - 6 - 7 - 5
Race 6: 5 - 2 - 8 - 4
Race 7: 4 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 8: 4 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 9: 4 - 6 - 2 - 11
RACE 2: HIGH COMMAND (#2)
This seems like a race that could produce an upset. Preternatural is clearly the horse to beat as he returns from a layoff for Rudy Rodriguez, but he’s not exactly the most trustworthy favorite. He actually ran fairly well when last seen at Saratoga in August, contesting a fast pace before fading. A similar effort would almost certainly beat this field, but it’s not a good sign that Rudy is bringing him back for a mere $25,000 tag. If he fails to show up with a top effort, this race is totally wide open. The two other horses that figure to attract support are wild cards. Connolly’s Beads was extremely disappointing as the heavy favorite when he returned from a layoff last time and is hardly formidable here if he’s unable to improve upon that performance. First time starter Milvado is a homebred coming into this cheap maiden claimer off slow workouts, so he’s not exactly a daunting presence. Therefore, I feel comfortable taking a shot with High Command. This gelding’s debut was not nearly as poor as it seems. He was actually racing up close soon after the start, but reacted badly to racing in tight quarters on the backstretch. He backed out of that position and then seemed to bear out while avoiding kickback heading into the turn. He appeared hopelessly beaten at the top of the stretch, but actually started running again in the late stages, nearly passing the third-place finisher late before galloping out well. He figures to do better second time out with that experience under his belt, and he may not have to run that fast to win this race. I don’t mind the slight stretch-out to 7 furlongs given that he is a full-brother to Ten Twenty Nine, who is best at a mile.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,7
RACE 3: AMERICANO (#2)
The Repole-owned, Pletcher-trained entry is likely to go off as the prohibitive favorite in this turf claimer. False Info is the one that many will regard as the stronger half of this pair as he drops in class out of tougher starter-allowance races. He ran off on the lead two back before fading as the favorite, and then failed to make a late impact last time after a wide trip. Both of those performances were decent, but I’m not convinced that he’s necessarily going to win this race by merely repeating them. The most obvious of alternative is Honorable Hero. This horse was somewhat fortunate to break his maiden at 28-1 last fall at Belmont, given that he rode an advantageous inside path to victory. Yet he then validated his improvement on turf with a respectable showing in the Awad against tougher company. He’s now getting back on the right surface, and Gary Contessa is placing him at a realistic class level. I’d use him, but I prefer another horse getting a second chance on turf. Americano’s only prior grass attempt came in his second start at Saratoga, and he failed to make an impact after racing greenly with a wide trip. It also didn’t help that he was facing a stakes-quality field on that occasion. He’s focused on dirt races since then with mixed results, but I think he deserves another shot on this surface. His dam was a turf and synthetic specialist, winning over $600,000 in her career, and this gelding’s best sibling was a turf horse. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will make the early lead from this inside slot in a situation favoring the front-runner.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6
RACE 4: MRS STINKMAN (#10)
The two horses likely to attract the most support among those with prior turf form are Double Medal and Avocado. I strongly prefer the Jonathan Thomas trainee, who ships up from Florida. Double Medal was unfortunate to run into the talented Beautiful Lover last time, and actually did well to hang on for third after contesting the pace. She should appreciate this turnback to 6 furlongs given her prior efforts sprinting, and the drop in class is quite significant as well. She’s the horse to beat, but I think there are some horses switching to turf who could make an impact in this race. One of those is Appreciate, who earned some of the highest turf speed figures in this field when running at this level last summer. Her recent dirt performances are poor, but she could be a serious factor as she gets back on the right surface this time. I’m using her, but my to pick is first time turfer Mrs Stinkman. This filly does not have the kind of obvious turf pedigree that will attract serious tote support, but there are indications that she will appreciate this surface switch. She traveled very well over the synthetic surface at OBS when she sold as a 2-year-old, and didn’t seem to get over the dirt nearly as smoothly in her debut last time. While her dam was more of a dirt horse, she has produced a turf winner and is herself a half-sister to a Grade 3 winner on turf. Furthermore, Cairo Prince is off to a great start with his turf runners as a sire. He is 14 for 84 (17%) with his turf starters and 26 for 222 (12%) with starters on all other surfaces.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,3,9,11
RACE 7: CATCH A CAB (#4)
The scratch of Dowse's Beach, who appeared to be the stronger half of the Michael Dubb entry, makes this race significantly more wide-open. That said, there is still a good case to be made for his stablemate We Should Talk, who has gotten limited turf opportunities in his career. It appears that he's been rested up for this return to grass in his first start off the claim for Jorge Abreu. I'll definitely use him, but I still believe better value lies elsewhere in this field. I want to take a shot with Catch a Cab as he returns from the layoff. This horse got into very good form last summer for Mark Casse, winning three straight races at Belmont before running poorly against open company. He made his first start off the claim for the Toscano barn in October, and he actually ran quite well. He made a strong move into contention approaching the quarter pole and briefly lost momentum while trying to squeeze through between horses. All things considered, I thought he ran well to just miss finishing second that day. If I’m right about Dowse’s Beach, Catch a Cab can win this race by merely repeating his last effort. He’s clearly the second fastest horse in the field in terms of speed figures. The layoff is obviously a concern, but Toscano has won with a couple of turf horses off similar breaks in the past. The other horse I want to use prominently is Royal Asset. He might be the speed of this field and he's run many competitive speed figures on turf, but you have to be somewhat concerned about his lackluster recent form.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,6,7
Trifecta: 4 with 1,7 with ALL
RACE 9: ANNETTE’S HUMOR (#4)
This finale is especially difficult to decipher, since so few of the entrants have prior turf form. Smart Throb has arguably run the best turf races, but she’s yet to win in 14 career starts and is hard to trust coming off a layoff. You could say the same thing about 20-start maiden Youth Gone Wild, who is even more inconsistent. Sander's Empire is slightly more appealing, having made just 3 turf starts during her career. She ran well the last time she raced in a true turf sprint in her debut at Saratoga, but a long time has passed since then. Therefore, I’m most interested in horses trying turf for the first time. The one that may attract the most attention is Mom’s Kisses for Rudy Rodriguez. She gets needed class relief off the layoff, attracts Irad Ortiz, and has plenty turf pedigree. I’m using her, but I actually prefer Rudy’s other horse Annette’s Humor. At least this filly has shown some speed in her prior starts. She’s a bit cheaper than many of her rivals, but I get the sense that she’s a hard-trying filly and she’s bred to make this transition to turf. Shackleford isn’t the worst turf influence, her dam was best on turf, and she is a half-sister to a turf winner. Furthermore, her second dam was a 3-time turf winner, so there is plenty of grass influence in this female family. She should be dangerous on the front end in a race lacking a clear speed rival. The other horse I want to use prominently at a big price is Minit Maus. Her dirt races are awful, but she is bred to love the turf. She’s by turf sire Courageous Cat and her lone half-sister to race is 2-time turf sprint winner Buffalo Miss. She’s another one that could show improved speed on this surface.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,6,11
Win/Place: 6