by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1/1A - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 2: 1 - 5 - 4 - 8
Race 3: 5 - 8 - 1 - 2
Race 4: 1 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 5: 7 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 6: 8 - 7 - 11 - 3
Race 7: 8 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 8: 3 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 9: 7 - 3 - 6 - 4
RACE 3: RADIANT BEAUTY (#5)
Chad Brown holds a very strong hand in this race. The probable favorite is Data Dependent, who gets some class relief following two tries against graded stakes company. She performed admirably when running on late for second in the Jimmy Durante last November, but disappointed as the favorite last time out in the Sweetest Chant. She did get a wide trip that day, but she lacked any stretch kick whatsoever in a race where others were able to close. Brown has given her a couple of months to recover and she figures to be tough if she gets back to her prior form. His other entrant, So Hi Society, is more of an unknown quantity. We didn’t learn much about her in her U.S. debut as she stopped in traffic when commencing her stretch rally. The main weakness for both of these fillies is their lack of early speed, which could make one of their rivals dangerous. Radiant Beauty earned the highest speed figure in this field in her dominant maiden win at Belmont last fall. She led wire to wire that day and she figures to play out as the controlling speed here. Her following start in the Chelsey Flower is not nearly as bad as it seems, as the chart comments fail to note that she got stopped in traffic in the stretch and was forced to slam on the brakes. She’s been freshened up since then, and her best effort makes her dangerous.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,8
RACE 5: PUFFERY (#7)
Recent maiden winners Camorra and Seeking the Blue should attract the most attention. The former seems like the more reliable of the two given that she’s returning in a timely fashion, whereas Seeking the Blue has not raced since December. I’ll use both of these fillies, but there are other viable options in this race. The one that interests me is Puffery, who turns back to a sprint distance after a disastrous performance in her first start against winners. The sloppy track on Feb. 16 appeared to be the undoing of many runners, and Puffery just did not seem to handle the going. Her prior maiden victory was visually impressive and fast enough to contend with the favorites here. Mark Hennig has given her plenty of time to recover from her last start, and it appears that she’s been working strongly for this return.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,6
RACE 7: WAR EAGLE’S RETURN (#8)
Cerro is the horse to beat. He’s earned some of the fastest speed figures in the field, and his superior early speed makes him dangerous, since the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead. However, Cerro is hard to trust at a short price. It’s never a good sign when horses claimed for hefty sums run back for a fraction of the claiming tag months later. Furthermore, the Bruce Levine barn has been pretty cold over the past few months. The best alternative to this favorite appears to be War Eagle’s Return. Making his first start off the claim for Jeremiah Englehart and owner James Riccio last time, things went awry from the start. War Eagle’s Return got sandwiched between runners at the start and squeezed to the back of the pack in the early going. His race was essentially over at that point. Now they’re regrouping and putting him back at the same level for which he was claimed. I also like the turnback in distance for a horse that is probably better suited to going shorter anyway. Over the past five years, Jeremiah Englehart is 15 for 63 (24 percent, $2.93 ROI) with dirt turnbacks at NYRA. I’ll use this horse with Forest Blue, who has been keeping much better company and also gets some needed class relief.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,6,7
RACE 9: BARATTI (#7)
A few of the main contenders in this race met on the Aqueduct turf course last fall. Baseline finished second at this level on Nov. 25 after setting the pace, just ahead of Cheyenne Bull, who was recording the second of two third place finishes in similar spots. Cheyenne Bull has since run respectably on dirt and appears to be coming into this race in solid form, whereas Baseline has since been claimed away from Brad Cox. Today’s rival Acoustic was also in that Nov. 25 race, but he finished far back after encountering a great deal of trouble in the stretch. This marks his first turf start since then, and his first start off the claim for Mike Maker. As long as some pace materializes, Acoustic appears to have an excellent chance to turn the tables on the aforementioned pair. However, there are others to consider as well. Glennrichment has raced primarily on dirt, but his turf effort last fall at Belmont certainly gives him a shot here. That N1X allowance field seemed stronger at the time than it does in retrospect, but Glennrichment nevertheless handled the surface. I’ll use him, but the horse that interests me most at a more attractive price is Baratti. This horse has been a massive disappointment after an impressive maiden score 4 years ago. However, I think it’s possible that he’s spent too much time racing on the wrong surface. Based on his efforts in 2017, turf might be what he needs. He actually ran deceptively well on Aug. 24 at Saratoga, closing from far back into a slow pace. Then on Nov. 3 he was hindered by a wide trip when finishing behind Cheyenne Bull. I find it interesting that the Mark Casse barn has dipped in to claim him at this point in his career. The Casse barn has had a strong winter meet in New York. They’ve only claimed two horses on this circuit during that time, but one won off the claim and the other finished a narrow second.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,4,6,9