by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 2: 1/1A - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 13 - 5 - 6
Race 4: 11 - 13 - 12 - 2
Race 5: 6 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 6: 5 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 7: 15 - 13 - 16 - 1
Race 8: 3 - 1 - 7 - 6
RACE 5: CLAIRVOYANT LADY (#6)
If this race were run during the summer, Curiousncuriouser would have been a prohibitive favorite, but her most recent effort was alarmingly lackluster. Sep. 15 was a day that was favoring horses racing on the rail, and she was racing wide throughout. However, she still gave way readily and the subsequent layoff and drop in class is cause for concern. Her main rival appears to be Satin Sheets, who improved in her first start off the claim by Jorge Abreu last time. She was a little overmatched at that level, but I thought she actually ran quite well within the context of that race. Now she’s dropping to a more appropriate level and I think she’ll be very dangerous if she merely repeats that performance. However, a lack of early speed in this race could work against her, since the Pace Projector is predicting that she could be as far back as last in the early going in a situation favoring the front-runners. The horse that may be in the best position to take advantage of a lack of pace is Clairvoyant Lady. She showed plenty of early zip when she ran off last time before tiring in the last furlong. The slight cutback to 6 furlongs should work in her favor, and I like the confident move up in class off the claim. Over the past 5 years, Jeremiah Englehart is 6 for 14 (43%, $3.59 ROI) with horses moving up in claiming price by 50% or more first off the claim in dirt sprints.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5,7
RACE 6: MR. BUFF (#5)
At first glance the four main contenders in this race appear to be pretty difficult to separate. Three of them exit the same race on Sep. 27 in which Plainsman beat them all by a large margin. The winner returned to defeat a tougher group of allowance horses with a strong speed figure next time out. Point to Remember finished closest to Plainsman that day and did so without the benefit for a perfect trip. Sep. 27 was another day during the Belmont meet where the main track seemed to favor horses that rode the rail, and he chased 2- to 3-wide throughout. I thought he ran a much better race the Storm Prophet, who came up the rail. Point to Remember has run some of his best races going this distance around two turns, and I think he’s the horse to beat. Storm Prophet may go favored off the strength of his last speed figure, but he got another perfect trip in that race and I feel that Sargeant Drive actually ran better. Both can win here, but I don’t love either one. I want to bet Mr. Buff. He’s been a difficult horse to pin down all year long, but I think this race could play to his strengths. He’s always been the type of runner that can carry his speed a route of ground when he’s allowed to set his own pace. That was readily apparent back on Aug. 22 at Saratoga when he destroyed a group of overmatched rivals going today’s distance around two turns. He actually ran a bit better than it seems in that Sep. 27 race, as he had to rush up to take the lead after a poor start, and raced 2-wide throughout. Rather than advancing to that Oct. 21 race against Storm Prophet, his connections instead opted to try to the Empire Classic. That race attracted a pretty salty field and Mr. Buff did well to hang on for third after contesting the pace. I think it’s notable that two of his best recent efforts have come at the 9-furlong distance. He is faster than Hollywood Strike and Point to Remember early, so he figures to make the early lead comfortably and that could make him difficult to reel in.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 5 with 3,6 with 2,3,6