PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 10 - 4 - 2
Race 2:   7 - 9 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   3 - 9 - 5 - 4
Race 4:   8 - 2 - 5 - 9
Race 5:   6 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 6:   5 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 7:   1 - 6 - 10 - 2
Race 8:   6 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 9:   13 - 3 - 10 - 5

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: THRICE (#6)
Ultimate Cause is the horse to beat as she moves up a condition level. While there were a few notable dropdowns who looked somewhat formidable in that last race, they didn't really perform at their usual level, so I'm not sure it was quite as strong a win as it seems. She can win again, but I think others will offer better value. War Canoe is obviously in great form, but she got a fast pace to close into last time, and may not be quite as lucky today. Winner's Dream also ran creditably despite a wide trip last time, but she figures to get a similar trip from her outside post position here. I'm taking a shot against them with Thrice, who returns to New York. That stakes at Kentucky Downs was too ambitious a spot, but her prior form makes her one of the logical choices here. Mike Maker has great numbers off the claim with his turf horses, but he does just as well second off the claim in turf routes. Over the past five years, he is 29 for 105 (28 percent, $2.82 ROI) in such situations.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,10

RACE 3: MINI MILES (#3)
Charnley River ran pretty well in his U.S. debut, closing to be second behind runaway winner Sethary. He's the horse to beat off that performance, but I'm a little concerned about his lack of speed. There just isn't much pace in this race, which makes his chief rival Mini Miles especially dangerous. I think this is a great spot for a new face, and this Canadian shipper fits the bill. He ran deceptively well in his debut going this distance, setting a legitimate pace before fading to second. Four of the horses that finished behind him that day returned to win their next start, validating the quality of the field. He was then cooked in a fast pace going too far next time, and hardly disgraced himself racing over the synthetic track last time. If he flashes his usual early speed here, they should have trouble catching him.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,9

RACE 5: TOO FAST TO PASS (#6)
Helooksthepart is obviously the one they all have to hold off after his visually impressive score last time, where he made a strong rally from the back of the pack to get up. He was claimed out of that race by Rudy Rodriguez, who has pretty strong numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 24 for 71 (34 percent, $2.25 ROI) first off the claim on the dirt, with horses coming off wins in their last starts. I nearly picked this horse right back in this spot, but I'm always a bit hesitant to bet a horse coming off a win that is going to go off at a much shorter price in his subsequent start. Therefore, I'm hoping that Too Fast to Pass can turn the tables here. This horse ran pretty well last time, contesting a strong pace before just fading a bit in the final furlong. Notably, he was claimed out of that race by Gary Gullo, who gets an 88 Trainer Rating with horses making their first start off the claim for his barn, and he's exiting the stable of 34-rated trainer Oscar Barrera III. That's a significant upgrade. Furthermore, this horse had run faster races when he was previously in the barns of high-percentage trainers, so there's reason to believe he'll put forth an improved effort this time.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,4,8
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with ALL

RACE 7: KILLYBEGS CAPTAIN (#1)
Portfolio Manager is a deserving favorite as he shortens up to a more appropriate distance after failing to get the mile last time. He also may not have appreciated making a move down toward the inside on a day when the rail wasn't really the place to be. He can win here, but there isn't that much speed in this race, so he'll have to use his tactical speed to stay in a contending position. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and the speed type that interests me most is Killybegs Captain. While I don't love all of the layoffs in this runner's past performances, he did run much better than it seems in his last start at Saratoga. Aug. 14 was a day where horses with inside speed appeared to have a real advantage, and Killybegs Captain was hindered by making a four-wide run around the far turn. We saw today's rival Holding Aces return to win after working out a similar wide trip in that race. I would expect Luis Saez to send Killybegs Captain from his inside post position.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,6,8,10