by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   10 - 1 - 2 - 11
Race 3:   3 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 4:   2 - 7 - 5 - 9
Race 5:   4 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 6:   14 - 1 - 6 - 12
Race 7:   5 - 6 - 3 - 8
Race 8:   2 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 9:   10 - 2 - 9 - 7

PLAYS

 
RACE 7: KUMAR (#5)
The two main players in this race exit a similar race at this level at Belmont on October 20. Other Things Equal figures to be the favorite after finishing second in that spot and he’s clearly a player once again. However, he was no match for winner Allured that day and I don’t believe that he actually ran a better race than the third-place finisher Super Silver. That Bruce Levine trainee is one who interests me in this affair. He hasn’t gotten ideal trips in either of his last two starts. On September 21, he got pushed in at the start and was forced to rate towards the back of the pack. While he never launched a rally, he also never really had a chance to make an impact while buried in traffic for much of the latter half of the race. Then, again last time, he had trouble at the start, getting squeezed out of position and putting him at the back of the pack. However, in that outing, he actually launched a fairly effective outside rally, challenging for the lead at the quarter pole after racing extremely wide around the far turn. A repeat of that performance would make him a serious threat here, but he needs to break cleanly this time. My top selection is Kumar. This colt is an interesting prospect to consider. At first glance, he looks like a turf horse, since he earned vastly improved speed figures in his last two starts, his only ones on that surface. However, those were also his two starts following a long layoff, during which time he probably matured a great deal. His prior dirt efforts weren’t bad, and he actually earned a respectable 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure going this distance on dirt in March of this year, when he had only just turned 3 years-old. He doesn’t strike me as being a one-dimensional turf runner and his pedigree suggests that dirt is still a perfectly viable option. The fact that Rudy Rodriguez is moving him back to this surface while rising in class is a sign of confidence, and this barn’s runners have been firing lately. Furthermore, his tactical speed should play well in this field, especially considering the way the dirt surface has been playing.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6,8
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with 2,3,7,8
 

RACE 8: HEAVY ROLLER (#2)
Complexity will beat this field if he gets back to the form that carried him to victory in the Grade 1 Champagne as a 2-year-old. However, there are definitely some concerns about his ability to return to that level given his two poor efforts since that time. That said, you can definitely make excuses for those losses. He didn’t want two turns in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, though he still ran poorly that day, and then he was unsettled when never able to make the lead in the Woody Stephens off the layoff last time. He appears to be working as well as ever coming into this race, and it’s good to see Chad Brown lower his sights a bit to target this N2X allowance after hanging with Grade 1 company in each of his starts since the maiden win. The biggest concern for me is the likely pace situation, since the speedy Aristocratic is likely faster than him in the early going. How will Complexity to react to adapting to stalking tactics in this race, and can he get the 7 furlongs while rating? I’m using him prominently, but I wouldn’t want to accept too short a price. The obvious alternative is Mr. Dougie Fresh, who has earned a series of speed figures that make him a contender but hasn’t won since the spring and is now being offered for a tag for the first time since h was claimed last year. It feels like this race could set up for a closer and the one that interests me most is Heavy Roller. He’s moving way up in class off his victory against $32,000 claimers last time, but he earned a strong sped figure that day and he won in stylish fashion going this distance. His new trainer Tony Dutrow hasn’t had much recent success off the claim, but he once did quite well with new acquisitions and he’s a capable horseman despite what the recent statistics would suggest. He has to avoid the kickback that has plagued so many closers on this track, but I like that he’s run well over a variety of surfaces and I prefer him, a horse who’s had success routing, to those attempting to stretch out in distance.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,6,7
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with ALL
 

RACE 9: GONGHEIFATCHOY (#10)
Seven Plus Seven seems like a deserving favorite in this spot. Two turf experiments haven’t worked out for him, but his surrounding dirt form is certainly good enough to give him a strong chance here. He earned a competitive speed figure two back when contesting the pace against a much better field than this at the maiden special weight level. He has the speed to be forwardly placed in a race that lacks of a ton of pace and that could make a big difference over a track that has been kind to front-running types. I’m using him, along with Talespin, who ran fairly well two back when making a late run past some tiring rivals to be third at this level. He couldn’t quite duplicate that effort last time, though he was flattered when Freudian Sip returned to beat winners in an impressive performance. They’re the two logical players in this race, but I think it’s worth entertaining some other options. Appointment might not look that appealing at first glance, having lost his last three starts by double-digit margins, but both of his dirt races have resulted in speed figures that suggest he’s a win candidate here. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is Gongheifatchoy, who is likely to be a price here. This colt overcame a very poor start on Feb. 17 to make a wide rally against a rail bias, and a repeat of that performance would make him a serious player here. While it’s unclear if he’s still capable of producing that form, he has been legitimately overmatched in both starts since returning from a layoff and is only now dropping to the right class level. He needs to break cleanly this time, something he’s struggled to do, but he figures to offer value in a race where the favorites just aren’t that appealing.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,7,9