by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 4: 9 - 1 - 8 - 7
Race 5: 2 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 6: 9 - 7 - 1 - 8
Race 7: 1A - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 8: 5 - 2 - 9 - 4
Race 9: 1 - 11 - 9 - 4
RACE 3: PETE’S PLAY CALL (#5)
Timber Ghost is clearly the horse to beat as he attempts to win his third straight race since returning from a layoff this summer. He has earned impressive speed figures in both of those victories and may not need to improve at all to defeat this tougher group. However, he has also benefitted from very favorable circumstances in those recent wins. TimeformUS has the dirt surfaces color-coded red, indicating speed biases, for each of those starts. It’s unclear if he can put in a top effort without the early lead, and he’s unlikely to get it here with Still Krz in the race. I’m using him, but I think others will offer better value. I’m most interested in a horse exiting the Sep. 29 race at this level. Both the winner and runner-up beat the bias, as that was yet another day at Belmont Park that was favoring horses racing on the rail. Runner-up Pete's Play Call has steadily been rounding back into form for Robertino Diodoro and I thought he ran just as well as the winner last time. At his best, Pete’s Play Call is one of the few horses in this field fast enough to beat Timber Ghost. Notably, he ran the best race of his career over this surface at this distance last November. On that occasion he was a game second to the talented Favorable Outcome after stalking the pace from close range. This tenacious son of Munnings seems to run his best races when he’s able to stay in contention throughout a race, and the predicted slow pace of this race should allow him to be forwardly placed in the early going.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 1,3 with ALL
RACE 4: SEA OF HOPE (#9)
This race demonstrates the current demand for turf racing on the NYRA circuit. Poor weather has forced the cancellation of so many races like this, so you wind up with full fields seemingly loaded with quality. Among those with experience, Malthael and Seismic Wave are the two likely to attract the most support. Malthael is probably the horse to beat off the strength of his runner-up finish behind Empire of War last time. That runner has already returned to win a stakes and Malthael finished many lengths clear of the rest of the field. The only knock against him is that he did ride a strong rail bias that day, but I would argue that his prior turf effort was also a strong performance. Seismic Wave ran well within the context of his debut, as he was off slowly and knifed between horses with a strong late rally in the stretch to just miss. However, that race came up very slow for the level, so he must prove that he can replicate that effort against a stronger field. There are a number of well-bred first time starters among this group, and none are more intriguing than the British-bred Demarchelier. Chad Brown and Peter Brant purchased this colt from the Tattersalls sale for nearly $600,000. His pedigree for turf is stellar, as he’s by top international sire Dubawi out of a dam who is a full-sister to Group 1 winners Yesterday and Quarter Moon. I’m definitely using him, but the one that I want to bet is Sea of Hope. While David Cohen has been the regular rider on Clement’s other runner, Malthael, I nevertheless find it interesting that Clement has given the mount on Sea of Hope to Irad Ortiz. Clement has given fewer mounts to Ortiz in recent months, but they have historically done well together, as the 95 TimeformUS Trainer Rating for this pairing attests. Sea of Hope is certainly bred to handle turf as a son of Quality Road out of a dam who earned nearly $400,000 racing primarily on turf and synthetic surfaces. This robust colt has made a nice impression in the morning and seems ready to put forth a solid effort in his debut. At a much bigger price, I also want to include longshot Bronxville in my exotic wagers. This Ray Handal runner showed some speed in his debut and has some sneaky turf pedigree.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,7,8
RACE 8: HOROSCOPE (#5)
Blewitt did little wrong when he began his career over this track last winter, falling just a neck short of sweeping his first three races. He earned impressive speed figures in each of those wins and would be a formidable favorite in this race were he to return in top form. However, Todd Pletcher’s recent record in New York is of great concern to me, especially given the fact that this horse is likely to go off at a short price. Over the past year at NYRA, Todd Pletcher is just 14 for 78 (18 percent, $0.94 ROI) with 4-year-old and older non-maidens on the dirt. While he’s done well off layoffs going back a number of years, his recent statistics – especially at NYRA – are far worse. I’ll use this horse defensively, but others will offer better value. Morning Breez seems like a viable alternative of his career-best speed figure on Oct. 13. He recorded that number while running back on just 2 days’ rest, so it remains to be seen if that unusual schedule will negatively impact this subsequent effort. I think this is a race where we can look outside the box, so I want to take a shot with Horoscope at a price. I realize that he lost to two rivals that he meets again in his last race, but I can excuse his performance given the sloppy track conditions. Prior to that, Horoscope ran deceptively well in both of his starts at Saratoga. He closed well on Aug. 29 despite getting an ill-conceived ride from off the pace, and he was negatively affected by a dead rail on Aug. 5. I’ve always thought shorter distances were better for this horse, so I like that Rudy Rodriguez is finally focusing on sprints with him. He will likely get ignored here and I think he has a chance to outrun his odds from a stalking position.
Win/Place: 5