by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 3: 5 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 4: 6 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 5: 1 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 6: 8 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 7: 1 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 8: 6 - 3 - 1
Race 9: 8 - 13 - 2 - 3
RACE 1: POSHSKY (#1)
With this race coming off the turf, horses with dubious recent grass form like Rockford and Tiznoble now deserve some respect based on their solid recent dirt races. However, both may find this one-mile distance to be a bit of a stretch for them, and the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which could work against them. I liked Poshsky on the turf, and I'm going to stick with him as this race comes off the grass. He actually has solid dirt form, and has shown that he can handle a wet track. Furthermore, I'm willing to excuse his poor recent effort following the layoff as he now comes back in Charlton Baker's barn for the first time. He gets a 95 TimeformUS Trainer Rating first off a trainer switch.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4
RACE 3: FRIEND OF LIBERTY (#5)
There’s little not to like about Littlemissbusiness. She’s hardly the most talented horse you will see running at this level, but she shows up with a
solid performance just about every time she’s led over from the paddock. While she’s had trouble breaking through this allowance condition during
the past year, it looks like she’s finally found a field that she can handle. She’s the horse to beat, but there are at least two interesting alternatives.
The one that figures to go off at a shorter price is Team of Teams, who makes her dirt debut after showing some real talent on turf earlier this year.
She’s bred to handle this surface, and her speed makes her dangerous. However, I prefer the runner posted to her outside, Friend of Liberty. This
was a shrewd claim by some savvy connections in the middle of the Saratoga meet. This three-year-old filly showed promise early this year before
going off form, but showed that she was heading back in the right direction in August. They set their sights a bit too high in their first start off the
claim, tackling some of the best filly and mare sprinters in the country in the Gallant Bloom. We’ve seen a few also-rans return out of that race to
improve, and it’s not as if she needs to progress that much to beat the favorite.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 2,4 with 1,2,3,4
RACE 8: IGGY LOCO (#6)
With this race coming off the turf, I think it's turned into a major trap. At first glance, it looks like either Altar Boy or Astounding is basically guaranteed to win this race, given that they're the only two runners left who have run dirt speed figures that would typically win a race at this level. However, I think we need to take a closer look at these runners and actually assess their value. I don't want any part of Astounding. Sure, he handled dirt early in his career, but his last two efforts over the main track were absolutely awful, and I see no indication that he wants to run on anything but turf these days. He's the biggest trap. Altar Boy, on the surface of things, looks far more reliable. He's run reasonably well on dirt as recently as this past June, and has never thrown in the kind of alarming performances over the main track that make me so wary of Astounding. However, what concerns me about Altar Boy is the distance of this race. I realize that he's handled longer distances on the turf, but that is a completely different game than racing over dirt, where true stamina is required to negotiate a two-turn 1 3/16 miles. In his dirt races, he has really been more of a one-turn horse that is out of his element when asked to go beyond a mile. On top of all that, Mike Maker has pretty poor numbers in off-the-turf routes like this. Over the past five years, he is 35 for 223 (16 percent, $1.15 ROI) in such situations. Altar Boy is still the most likely winner, but I think he's going to offer bad value.
Perhaps I'm taking this argument a little too far by picking Iggy Loco on top, but I think this horse has something that others in this field lack – stamina. He's never gone farther than nine furlongs, but he is a strong finisher with a long, loping stride – the kind of horse that gives the impression that he just wants to run all day. He's never started on dirt, but he has some dirt pedigree on the dam's side of his pedigree, and his sire is only an 8% grass sire, so it's not as if he's some kind of major turf influence. He figures to get completely ignored in the wagering, and I see him as the only viable alternative to the favorites. This opinion is more of a "bet-against" strategy than anything else, but sometimes that's the position you need to take when you smoke out an underlay.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,4