by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 8 - 7 - 3
Race 2: 1 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 1 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 6 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 6: 6 - 4 - 3 - 7
Race 7: 3 - 7 - 8 - 9
Race 8: 3 - 5 - 4
Race 9: 2 - 4 - 3 - 9
RACE 1: KING OF AMERICAN (#5)
Wednesday’s opener is very confusing, since none of the runners with experience have been particularly competitive in their dirt starts. The horse with the best dirt performance is Shandian, but his recent form and the route distance of this race suggest that we may not see his best efforts. Some handicappers may gravitate towards those dropping in class, and the most appealing option among that group seems like Uncle Ned. While this Christophe Clement trainee has not been particularly competitive in either start, this will be his first start on a fast track and he does have more of a dirt pedigree. Furthermore, the Clement stable is 8 for 21 (38%, $2.12 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming droppers on dirt over the past 5 years. I’m using him prominently, but I wouldn’t want to take too short a price on anyone in this field. Some of the firsters are also mildly intriguing, as Icy Dude has a full-sibling that was a decent racehorse and Textpection’s dam had some ability. Yet they’re not going out for barns that are known for debut success. I want to get a bit more creative, so my top pick is King of American. Some will write this horse off due to the connections without really examining his form. While he’s started for a tag before, he’s done so at shorter distances and he’s supposed to appreciate this one-mile trip based on his pedigree. I know he failed to get 1 1/8 miles last time, but that was against a strong maiden special weight field on a weekend when the kickback was especially detrimental to closers. Furthermore, the pace of that race just didn’t set up for him. His prior dirt speed figures put him in the mix and he figures to get overlooked in the wagering.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,7,8
RACE 5: MO FLASH (#6)
Likely favorite Miss Jak certainly knows how to win races, having compiled an 8 for 19 lifetime record while racing primarily in the mid-Atlantic region. She was able to bring her form to Aqueduct last time and will be tough to beat if she merely repeats that winning effort. Howver, she’s now in the barn of Linda Rice, who is 28 for 110 (25%, $1.34 ROI) first off the claim in dirt sprints over 5 years, suggesting that these types of runners are often overbet. I’m using her prominently, but there’s better value to be found elsewhere. One of her main rivals is Honey Graeme, who was no match for the favorite last time. She now makes her first start off the claim for Maker, who is 13 for 69 (19%, $1.01 ROI) first off the claim in dirt sprints over 5 years. She has back races that would make her a serious threat, but it remains to be seen if she can recapture that form. Science Fiction is in a similar situation, since her recent form appears to have tailed off a bit. She’s hard to like off her last dirt effort at Laurel, but she had previously earned competitive speed figures over this track last year. My top pick is Mo Flash, who should be a decent price in this spot. This filly definitely has shown an affinity for Aqueduct, having achieved all 5 of her career victories over this track. She went off form during the summer, but that also coincided with her trying some tougher company. She ran fairly well at this level back September when just barely losing to a couple of today’s rivals. While she has to run faster to get back to the winner’s circle here, she has a right to improve as she makes her second start off the claim for Chris Englehart.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,7
Trifecta: 6 with 3,4 with ALL
RACE 6: JIMMY JAZZ (#6)
The likely favorite, Crazy Life, comes in with decent form, but he’s had his chances and hasn’t exactly impressed in either of his turf starts this year. He was only beaten a length by Waynes Footsteps last time, and that runner did come back to win at the same level next time. This gelding hasn’t been seen for three months since that most recent start, but this barn does great off layoffs. If he merely maintains his form he’ll be a major player once again. In searching for an alternative, many are likely to gravitate towards the new face, Kingfish. This second time starter ran like a horse who badly needed his debut first time out, only hitting his best stride late after a sluggish start, and that’s not atypical for this barn. However, Linda Rice is just 2 for 19 (11%, $0.78 ROI) with maiden second time starters in turf routes over 5 years. This colt does have pedigree to handle the surface, but has quite a bit of ground to make up. I prefer one of the rivals with proven turf form, and I think Jimmy Jazz makes a lot of sense in this spot. His connections are probably making the right move by giving him one more chance at this maiden special weight level, since he’s actually good fit for this race. His overall turf form is some of the best in this field, and he only did so poorly last time because his rider didn’t make use of his tactical speed. He actually did better than the result would indicate in that appearance after getting shuffled back on the far turn. The connections have toyed with the idea of running for a tag since then, but Jimmy Jazz still has a chance to break through this level if he merely maintains his form.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,7
Trifecta: 6 with 3,4,7 with 2,3,4,7
RACE 7: MO READY (#3)
With Chimney Rock expected to scratch out of this race, it becomes a far more competitive affair. Turned Aside should inherit the favorite’s role as he drops out of a seventh-place finish in the Atlantic Beach Stakes earlier in the meet. While he only split the field that day, he actually was right in contention until about the eighth pole, at which point he got swallowed up by some late runners. The pace of that race wasn’t exceptionally fast, but he did have to chase the eventual winner while racing off the rail, which was the place to be on the turf that weekend. If this colt can recapture the form that carried him to a 4-length victory at Belmont in October, he’ll be tough to beat. However, there are many others to consider, including a few New York-breds stepping out against open company. Big Package figures to attract some support off his visually impressive maiden victory last time, and Maxwell Esquire is also somewhat intriguing as he turns back for the first time after facing behind Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Structor in the Pilgrim. I’ll use both and could upgrade either one depending on their prices. Yet my top pick is another state-bred, Mo Ready. This colt looks a bit slower than some others at first glance, but I think he has a right to step forward here. His maiden victory at Saratoga in August has proven to be a pretty solid effort. Turbo Drive and Maxwell Esquire both returned out of that race to improve. Mo Ready got bet down to even-money that day despite not possessing much more turf pedigree than whatever influence he gets from his sire, Uncle Mo. He stalked the pace while racing 3-wide and drew off with authority in the lane. While he won going the two turns that day, his female family is full of sprinters, indicating that he might be even better turning back in distance on turf. It’s somewhat of a concern that he appeared to miss some time following that victory last time, but he appears to have come to hand quickly for Pletcher since returning to the worktab.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,7,8,9
Trifecta: 3,7 with 3,7 with 1,2,8,9