by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 2: 1 - 8 - 7 - 4
Race 3: 4 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 4: 6 - 9 - 10 - 8
Race 5: 7 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 6: 6 - 4 - 1 - 8
Race 7: 6 - 7 - 8 - 2
Race 8: 7 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 9: 5 - 3 - 11 - 1
RACE 6: NOUVELLE VAGUE (#6)
The horse to beat is Frosty Lady, who is coming off two solid performances against New York-bred company. She put in an exceptional effort two back when she had a wide trip and was second at Saratoga, and then she lost nothing in defeat last time when soundly beaten by the vastly improved La Moneda. She may have to come from a bit farther back in the pack this time, since the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. However, her versatile running style should serve her well. I'll use her, but the horse that I want to bet in this spot is Nouvelle Vague. This mare raced sparingly for Chad Brown when first arriving in this country, though she did run well enough to be competitive at this level on a few occasions. Claimed by Linda Rice for Gainesway Stable back in April, she was given an extended layoff before racing for these new connections. Her last race seems like a classic Linda Rice prep. She had been given only one workout in over a month prior to that start, and she ran like a horse that wasn't quite fit, running off the lead before fading. It was no disgrace losing to a talented filly like In the Lee, and now she gets some minor class relief. I expect her to revert to a more patient running style this time.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,4,8
RACE 7: EXTINCT CHARM (#6)
I found this race to be a real dilemma. Gift Box is obviously the horse to beat, but I'm hesitant to pick him at a short price given the disappointing nature of his two efforts this year. I suppose that you could excuse his first start back from the layoff, since he may just not have appreciated sprinting. However, his most recent loss at a short price is harder to swallow. He had relished a wet track earlier in his career, yet he was unable to stay with the winner that day while earning a speed figure that was well below his best. The obvious alternative to the favorite is Governor Malibu, but he's equally as hard to endorse given his declining form and lack of will to win races recently. I think this is a spot where you can get a little more creative. The puzzle is figuring out who is the right horse to trust at a price. The one that I want to take a shot with is Extinct Charm, but let's be clear about his chances: If he merely repeats the speed figures that he's run so far in 2017 he has no chance in this race. My hope is that he needed those first couple of starts off the layoff to get fit. His last win at Finger Lakes was an improvement, and he'll need to take another major step up to compete against this field. He's a long, leggy horse who probably has to race his way into top fitness, so there's some hope that he can continue his forward progression. Last year as a three-year-old he was running speed figures that would make him competitive in a spot like this, assuming that we don't see the best version of Gift Box. If he can now get back to those races as a four-year-old, he's a player in this race, and he's going to be an attractive price.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,7,8
Trifecta: 7 with 1,2,5,8 with 6
RACE 8: LOKI’S VENGEANCE (#7)
He’s probably not going to be that large of a price, but I’m not trying to beat Loki’s Vengeance in this spot as he goes for this third consecutive win in this New York Stallion Series stakes. This horse has never been a big fan of wet tracks, so I can excuse his last two efforts back in May. His prior races over fast tracks certainly put him in the mix here, and he’d undoubtedly win if he were to get back to the effort he put in to win this last year. He’s now making his first start for Linda Rice, who has excellent numbers off trainer changes in dirt sprints. Over the past five years, she is 11 for 35 (31 percent, $2.78 ROI) in such situations. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting that Loki’s Vengeance will be in a position to control affairs on the front end. He just appears to be a very likely winner. I'll use him over Gold for the King, who needs to get back in form after disappointing in recent starts, and Sudden Surprise, who could contend here if he gets back to his effort two back.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 7 with 1,3,5 with ALL
RACE 9: TIZZA TEMPER (#5)
Lulu's Pom Pom is a deserving favorite in this spot. She returned from a brief layoff to run a strong race last time out at Belmont, finishing a close third behind Way Smart and Dream Passage, both of whom would be top contenders in this race. The only knock against her is the high likelihood of a very short price. My top pick, Tizza Temper, is not the most likely winner, but she does figure to offer better value than the favorite. I think she'll have a real chance here if she can run back to her two efforts during the summer at Belmont, when she finished behind the aforementioned Way Smart, and then pressed a fast pace and faded on July 15. Her most recent outing was disappointing, but I think she may have needed that race. Coming into that return from the layoff, she had only been given three workouts, two of which were slow three-furlong drills. She should have gotten plenty of fitness out of that race, and the cutback to six furlongs may actually suit her.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,11