PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 3:   1 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 4:   16 - 15 - 4 - 9
Race 5:   4 - 1/1A - 2 - 3
Race 6:   3 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 7:   4 - 1 - 7 - 9
Race 8:   11 - 2 - 10 - 5
Race 9:   10 - 4 - 9 - 6

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: GIVETHEMAN A CIGAR (#4)
I’m not completely sold on I Miss My Father, who moves up in class off the claim by Linda Rice. Over the past five years, she is just 3 for 24 (13 percent, $0.57 ROI) first off the claim with maidens in dirt sprints. The other runner likely to take money is Dwizard, who drops in for a tag for the first time after a couple of disappointing efforts against maiden special weight company. He can win with this best effort, but I don't like the trajectory of this well-bred horse. I’ll try to beat them both with Givetheman a Cigar. He’s making his first start against maiden-claiming company after a couple of maiden special weight tries on the dirt and one failed turf experiment. He actually ran a decent race in his debut, despite racing greenly through the middle portion. Then two back, he was very wide around the turn, and Irad Ortiz basically wrapped up on him in the final furlong, exaggerating the margin of defeat. He looks the right alterative to the favorites.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2

RACE 3: PAULA’S PISTOL (#1)
The one-mile distance of this race casts some doubt over what would otherwise be a fairly straightforward affair. Based on prior form, the two logical players are clearly Seam and Chistmas Sky. However, I'm not sure that I want either one of them stretching out in distance. Seam defeated Christmas Sky in their only meeting and may be a shorter price here. However, over the past five years, maidens making their first starts after being claimed away from Todd Pletcher are just 13 for 63 ($1.37 ROI) – so they typically underperform. Instead, I want to take a shot with Paula's Pistol, who has a right to move forward after breaking awkwardly in her sprint debut. A couple of her siblings handled route distances, and Michelle Nevin has fantastic numbers with non-debuting dirt horses trying routes for the first time. Over the past five years, she is 11 for 36 (31%, $4.22 ROI) in such situations.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,6