by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 9 - 8 - 7
Race 2:   4 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 4:   7 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 5:   2 - 7 - 10 - 5
Race 6:   5 - 3 - 6 - 8
Race 7:   6 - 4 - 5 - 8
Race 8:   3 - 2 - 5 - 8
Race 9:   7 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 10:   2 - 3 - 11 - 9

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

 
RACE 3

This state-bred optional claimer revolves around morning line favorite Shadow Dragon (#7), and whether he can get back on track following a poor performance last time. Perhaps he didn’t appreciate the stretch-out to 9 furlongs, but he was never involved in that race as the 6-5 favorite. He had performed much better in his prior start going a mile around one turn. However, he now lands in a race where the pace setup might not work in his favor. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring frontrunners. Shadow Dragon does possess the highest Late Pace Rating, but he has to avoid leaving himself with too much to do. Aggregation (#1) is obviously a threat to wire the field. While he hasn’t been a confirmed frontrunner in prior starts, he has consistently displayed tactical speed, and now stretches out from a sprint where he was outrun by faster rivals. Chad Brown adds blinkers, perhaps signaling intention, and the rail post position should solidify an aggressive strategy. I’m just not convinced he’s ever going to run back to that impressive allowance score from May 2022. He’s been campaigned sparingly since then, and this barn does not have positive statistics with blinker additions. Thrill of It (#2) has earned a competitive set of recent speed figures, but he’s struggled to make much of an impact on the results of his recent starts at this level. He was successful going a mile earlier in his career, so perhaps the stretch-out will aid him. However, you have to accept a shorter price with Irad Ortiz getting aboard this time. My top pick is Market Alert (#4). He’s not shown leading on the Pace Projector, but he certainly possesses the tactical speed to be forwardly placed going this distance. He did win in gate to wire fashion against a tougher open company field when he raced a mile at this venue in early March. He went off form for trainer Orlando Noda after that, but he might be ready to turn things around in the barn of Charlton Baker. His first start off the trainer switch last time isn’t nearly as bad as it looks, since he didn’t seem to respond to rating tactics, pulling in the early stages before losing position on the turn. I do think that effort was a step in the right direction, and I expect him to get a more aggressive ride from Trevor McCarthy.

Fair Value:
#4 MARKET ALERT, at 4-1 or greater
 

RACE 5

This Miss Grillo drew a highly competitive field of 12 fillies, and it’s difficult to completely dismiss the chances of too many. The likely favorite is Gala Brand (#8), who became the lone stakes winner in this field when she beat males in the G3 With Anticipation at Saratoga. That performance was obviously flattered by runner-up Carson’s Run, who came back to win the Grade 1 Summer in his next start. She was dazzling when rallying into a fast pace on debut, and nearly as impressive closing into a slow pace last time. However, the waters do get much deeper here, as this race arguably came up tougher than the Pilgrim later in the card. I think her chief rival is Memorialize (#7), who also exits a victory at Saratoga. This filly showed ability on debut at Colonial, overcoming a disastrous start to rally for second from a seemingly hopeless position. She proved that added distance was no issue last time, beating a solid maiden field, which included impressive next-out winner Buchu. Her TimeformUS Speed Figure matches that of the favorite, and she figures to be a better price. Plenty of others in here also exit Saratoga maiden races. Gold Lightning  (#4) was visually impressive closing from far back on debut, and the runner-up from that race returned to place in a stakes next time. Later Darling (#10) lost both prior starts at Saratoga, but she was badly compromised by poor starts on each occasion. She has to break cleaner this time, but she obviously has significant closing ability, and figures to get somewhat overlooked. Many of these fillies rallied from off the pace in prior starts, so I want to respect the tactical speed of Dancing Spirit (#5), who was game to hold off the closers in her lone turf attempt. Trainer Adam Rice is dangerous with everything he sends to New York, and this filly should have a good trip coming to her. I’m hoping the same is true of my top pick Hard to Justify (#2). She probably has more speed than she displayed on debut, as she had good early position but was shuffled back a couple of spots when encountering some trouble into the far turn. I thought she recovered very nicely to launch a wide bid into the stretch, sustaining that move to wear down her rivals. She obviously has to run faster here, but she drew well and figures to be a fair price for dangerous connections.

Fair Value:
#2 HARD TO JUSTIFY, at 6-1 or greater
#7 MEMORIALIZE, at 4-1 or greater
 

RACE 6

I’m not thrilled with the likely favorites in this $16k conditioned claimer. I suppose Dee’s Speedstre (#6) is the horse to beat as he returns to claiming company after finishing second in an allowance race at Finger Lakes last time. I thought he ran pretty well at this level at Saratoga two back, beaten by a rival with some upside. However, he failed to finish off that race, and it’s not the first time he’s struggled to see out the one-mile trip. He figures to take plenty of money with Irad Ortiz getting back aboard, and I think others are more intriguing. Proven Hope (#3) ran pretty well in a slightly cheaper race at Monmouth two back, launching a 5-wide move around the far turn before understandably hanging in the late stages. He is a runner who tends to settle for minor awards, but his dirt form stacks up very well against that of the favorite, and he figures to be a better price. El de Chimi (#8) faced a similar rival in his last race at Monmouth and finished decently once steered into the clear. He’s not as exposed as some others routing on dirt and may still have upside. Yet a common theme among all of these contenders is a lack of early speed. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that longshot Dads Good Runner (#5) will be in front in a situation favoring the leader. I think that runner is worth some consideration based on that assessment. I also think it’s possible that he’s returned as an improved horse since the trainer switch to Linda Fisher. He ran deceptively well at this level last time after getting left at the start. He raced wide and gamely made up ground on the lead pack to lose by less than 5 lengths against a comparable field to the one he meets here. I don’t mind added distance for a horse has run his best races when stretched out to 7 furlongs.

Fair Value:
#5 DADS GOOD RUNNER, at 9-1 or greater
 

RACE 7

This Pilgrim seems fairly wide open, so I don’t want to settle for short prices on either of the Todd Pletcher runners. Agate Road (#3) could go favored off his visually impressive maiden victory at Saratoga, in which he closed with a rush from a difficult position after a wide trip. However, much of that difficulty was due to his own greenness. The potential is there, but he has to run a more professional race this time and prove that he can step up against a tougher field. His stablemate Triple Espresso (#7) also has plenty of potential for development after a closing second-place finish in his debut against stakes company at Colonial. I liked this horse’s movement and acceleration in that replay, and it appeared that Jose Ortiz rode him quite conservatively. It’s just tough to gauge the quality of that field. I think there are others to consider at better prices. Fulmineo (#8) unleashed a powerful finish to win his turf debut at Colonial and has already run a faster speed figure than most in here. B D Saints (#5) had difficult trips in his first couple of turf starts and appeared to put it all together last time. He worked out a perfect trip setting a moderate pace, but he might play out as the controlling speed once again. Tifareeh (#4) appeared to beat a decent field at Kentucky Downs last time in his first turf attempt. He rated kindly behind horses and displayed good acceleration to run past the leaders in a convincing score. He has to prove he can do it over a conventional turf course this time, but he appears to have talent and will be a square price. My top pick is Get Spooled (#6). This New York-bred was somewhat fortunate to win his debut, a race where B D Saints had significant trouble. However, Get Spooled did get bumped and checked hard out of the gate before rushing up to the lead. He got an even worse trip last time in the With Anticipation. He again had some trouble at the start, getting shuffled back in the early stages. However, he got a bit keen thereafter, and Jose Lezcano allowed him to make an early move to contest the pace. He paid the price late, as the pace collapsed and the race went to closers. I think he’s better than he looks and can deliver a faster performance if he finally breaks cleanly.

Fair Value:
#6 GET SPOOLED, at 7-1 or greater
 

RACE 8

I have some doubts about all of the likely favorites in this optional claiming affair. Tough Street (#8) is obviously the horse to beat in her current form, and she’s turned into a pretty reliable performer for Chad Brown, having hit the board in 12 of 13 career starts. It’s admirable that Chad has gotten her to relax and finish, allowing her to stretch her speed out to a mile. However, now she’s being asked to try a two-turn 9 furlongs, which requires a different kind of stamina. I’m just not convinced she’s going to be as effective at this distance, and she figures to finally take some money after going off at overlays in her last two starts. It’s also hard to trust Chad Brown’s other entrant Fireline (#2) after she completely failed to show up in the Alabama last time. Her reputation rests on one competitive performance three back, in which she defeated Tough Street. Notably that was her only start on Lasix, so perhaps she’ll get back to it now that she’s dropping back into an allowance race. Know It All Audrey (#5) makes some sense as an alternative. She's handled this 9-furlong distance in the past, and has held her form pretty well over the past few months despite a series of losses. She met some good New York-bred rivals last time, and two back had signicant trouble at the quarter pole. My top pick is Anatolian (#3). This filly has some things to prove from a class standpoint, but both of her dirt efforts are better than they seem. She was racing on a dead rail when she tried this distance at Aqueduct back in April. Then last time she finally got back on dirt in an off the turf race, and did well to close for the victory on a speed-favoring day where few horses were getting passed in the stretch. This is a tougher assignment, but I know she’ll get the distance and I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best she has to offer on dirt.

Fair Value:
#3 ANATOLIAN, at 9-2 or greater
 

RACE 9

I suppose I’m Very Busy (#6) is the horse to beat against this field, but it’s a little hard to take another short price on him after he has disappointed in two starts since returning from a layoff this year. It’s not that either performance was that bad individually, but he just hasn’t really stepped forward since his impressive debut last season. Fredo (#1) comes in off the best last-out performance, but he got a great trip that day, setting a moderate pace in a race that was dominated on the front end. He benefits from drawing the rail again here, but he does land in a spot that is supposed to feature more early pace than last time. The intriguing new face in this lineup is Capture the Flag (#4). This colt was visually impressive in his dirt debut as a 2-year-old, but he’s always been meant to eventually get on grass. His dam was a Grade 1 Flower Bowl winner and he’s a half-brother to turf stakes performer Personal Best. He appeared to work very well on turf at Saratoga in early September, and I won’t be surprised when he turns out to be pretty good on this surface. I just don’t expect him to be much of a price given all of those factors. My top pick is Yacowlef (#7). He wasn’t originally intended to make his U.S. debut in the Saranac, but his connections opted to get that race into him after an allowance spot was rained off the turf. He just didn’t seem to be ready to deliver a top effort that day, as he got too keyed up before and during the race, and had little left to finish. Now he’s dropping into a softer spot, and I think we could see him revert to the closing tactics that worked well in Europe earlier this year. He unleashed a strong finish at Goodwood in May, and a repeat of that performance makes him a major player here. I’m expecting a better effort second off the layoff.

Fair Value:
#7 YACOWLEF, at 5-1 or greater