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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 4: Starter Allowance at 8.5 furlongs on turf

The two fillies to beat in this race are Khaleesi Kat (#3) and She’s So Fine (#8), both of whom were compromised for different reasons last time out. Khaleesi Kat was involved in a paceless race (color-coded in blue, indicating a slow pace) last time and undoubtedly ran the best race closing from the back of the pack. She’s So Fine, on the other hand, got a fair pace to close into at Keeneland, but was just never clear while pinned down on the rail in the stretch. She probably could have won that race with a clear run. That said, both of these fillies are plodding types, and I just don’t love relying on horses like this over Aqueduct’s turf course.

That’s why I’m taking a shot with ROAD TO PERFECTION (#2). I’m not convinced that her turf sprint is a true indication of her grass ability. This filly obviously took a couple of starts to figure things out, and David Donk has been intent on keeping her on turf, which I believe is significant. Her last race—albeit on dirt—was seriously good, and if she transfers that form to grass, she can win this. She is, after all, a half-sister to 3 turf winners.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,8

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight at 8 furlongs

Altito (#1) is the horse to beat after possibly being compromised by spending too much time on the rail over a muddy surface in his last start. However, he’s had his chances and is likely to be a short price once again. I’m taking a small shot against him with second-time starter LUNAIRE (#7). Although not noted in the running line comment, he was off at least a length slowly first time, which put him farther off the pace than he otherwise would have been. He got right back in the race and finished well, if a bit greenly. Today the Pace Projector indicates he could be the quickest early, and he’s certainly bred to stretch out as a half-brother to marathoner Sadler’s Joy.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,4,6

Race 6: The Long Island Handicap (G3) at 12 furlongs on turf

Itsonlyactingdad (#2) is the horse to beat as she drops in class out of a decent effort behind Lady Eli in the Flower Bowl. There’s no guarantee that she’s going to love a mile and a half, but she also didn’t get the best of setups in the Glens Falls two back, her only previous time trying a marathon distance. However, she’s going to be a short price just because the rest of this field lacks proven graded stakes form, so I want someone else on top.

How about PALINODIE (#9), as she makes her first start in the U.S? Christophe Clement gets a 98 trainer rating with overseas shippers, and this filly has progressed nicely since making her debut in the spring, cycling up to a respectable 113 Timeform rating last time. She kept company with some eventual Group 2 winners in her first couple of starts and I like the confident placement with no layoff.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,4,5,6

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight at 7 furlongs

While I respect Frozen Angel (#3) and Heavy Meddle (#6), who are both exiting a strong one-mile race, I think there’s an intriguing alternative that may get overlooked in the wagering. There really is not that much speed in this race, and the Pace Projector is predicting that BLAME THE THIEF (#12) may just be faster than his competitors in the early going. In his debut, Paco Lopez was aggressive out of the gate and he got involved racing between rivals in a three-way duel. He understandably tired late as next-out stakes winner Mirai went on to win. This Tim Hills trainee is bred to stretch out in distance, and I think we’ll see a fitter horse today.

Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 2,3,5,6,9,13

Race 8: Claiming $40,000 at 8 furlongs on turf

Discussion of this race has to start with the pace, since the Pace Projector is predicting a fast early clip. There are not that many closers to choose from, but the logical one is Hudson River Gal (#6). She makes plenty of sense, but has also finished second in half of her 12 career starts. At a bigger price, I want to take a small shot with IMFLATOUTSWEET (#2). I don’t think this filly is actually a sprinter and I wonder if she’ll be better suited to this two-turn race, in which Chris Decarlo is likely to just take her to the back of the pack and make one run. I realize it was a long time ago, but she actually ran pretty well in two of her three starts at this distance.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Box: 2,6
Trifecta Key Box: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1,5,9,12