by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.

RACE 4: SCARLETT JO HANSEN (#8)
There are plenty of viable options in a race that features several contenders with reliable turf form. Pinchbeck was installed as the morning-line favorite as she moves back into statebred company after finishing second against open foes at Tampa Bay Downs last time. However, this is not as significant a class move as it might seem, and she still needs to deliver a top performance to beat this field. I'm equally as interested in Madame Ambassador and Silly Numbers, who both ran well over this turf course last fall and have a right to have improved since then. I could use any of the aforementioned runners, but my top selection is the first-time turfer Scarlett Jo Hansen. This filly ran deceptively well in her debut despite racing very greenly through the final three-eighths of a mile, and then she was simply overmatched when facing a particularly salty group of New York-bred maidens last time. While she's performed reasonably well on dirt, her pedigree suggests that turf is what she really wants. Hansen is proving to be a capable grass sire, and her dam has produced four turf winners.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,5,9,10
 
 

RACE 6: IRON POWER (#3)
Arcature is probably the horse to beat as he makes his second start for Chad Brown's barn. He was shuffled back around the turn at Gulfstream last time and then had limited room to run for much of the stretch. He probably wasn't going to win that race given that no one was really closing from the back of the pack, but he did run better than it appears. That said, these types of runners are just typically overbet, and I'm inclined to consider other options. Closing Bell is the favorite on the morning line, but he seems to run his best races at long distances, and I'm not sure that his apparent class edge will come into play going 1 1/16 miles. Given a general lack of pace in this race, I'm taking a shot with Iron Power. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be clearly in front early in a situation favoring the leader. He's had trouble putting races together recently, but his recent inner-track performance is not as bad as it seems. He prefers turf these days, and he actually didn't run that badly in his last start over this turf course in the Artie Schiller. Not only was he facing a tougher field that day, but he got a wide trip around both turns, which hindered his chances. He's won over this course in the past, and I think he can pull off the minor upset here.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 2,6 with ALL
 
 

RACE 7: BIG MARA (#3)
There's a lot going on in this race. You have horses with strong recent form, like Andesine and Bee Noteworthy, who figure to take plenty of action on the tote board. But you're also presented with a puzzling runner like Vicki's Dancer, who has run plenty of races that would beat this field but hasn't been seen since last May. You can make reasonable cases for almost every participant in this race, so I want to find the one who figures to offer the best value. I think that horse will be Big Mara. Her two starts at this level are likely to turn off most horseplayers, but she actually ran better than it appears on both occasions. Two back, she was stymied down inside around the far turn while eager to run and then was never able to get off the rail in the stretch. Then, last time, she was steadied and out of position early before getting bumped and losing momentum at the top of the stretch. She possesses more speed than that, and I expect Junior Alvarado, who has ridden her well in the past, to put her in the game earlier this time. If she runs back to her efforts from last summer, she can beat this bunch.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,7,8
 
 

RACE 8: BOSS LADY PLATINUM (#3)
Nouvelle Vague is the most likely winner of this race, but I want no part of her at a short price. She didn't run particularly well in either of her New York starts last fall, and now she's dropping back in for a tag while returning from a three-month layoff. Horses like this are always overbet, and there are plenty of other options with reasonable turf form. However, I'm looking at this race from another angle. There is a glaring lack of speed in this race. Queen of Spades is predicted to be on the lead early, but she's hardly a confirmed front-runner, and who knows what to expect from her off the layoff? Therefore, I'm hoping that Boss Lady Platinum can control this race up front. I know that her dirt races suggest she's too slow, but I'm intrigued by this surface switch. She had real trouble in her only turf start, and she has the pedigree to take to the grass. It seems like Gary Contessa has been waiting for turf season with her ever since she won her maiden, and I think she will outrun her odds in this spot.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,7,10
Trifecta: 2,7,10 with 2,7,10 with 3