by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.

RACE 1: LOYAL HEART (#4)
The two runners with the best recent turf form are Bareeqa and Lillie's Answer, who both are shipping up from Gulfstream Park for capable barns. I respect both of these contenders, but I think there's an intriguing longshot in this race who could get dismissed at a generous price. Loyal Heart has not run on turf in quite some time, and those efforts are not strong enough to make her competitive here. However, she also wasn't much of a dirt horse back then either. In recent months, she has vastly improved her form, and she is coming into this race off two of the finest efforts of her career. She's always been cut out to handle turf given her pedigree, and once upon a time, it appeared that turf might be her preferred surface. The Pace Projector is indicating that she can control the pace in a race lacking other front-runners.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6,8
 
 

RACE 3: WINGMAN (#5)
Markitoff is probably the horse to beat off his Saratoga debut against tougher company, but he hasn't been seen in many months, and Linda Rice's numbers off lengthy layoffs are mediocre. I'm taking a shot against him with first-time turfer Wingman. While this runner's pedigree isn't screaming turf, there are certainly enough grass influences to suggest he can handle this surface. He is a half-brother to Divine Park (notably, the sire of grass superstar Lady Eli) and is related to a turf winner. Wingman's return to the races last time was a better effort than it appears given that he was off slowly and stymied in traffic for much of the running. He got clear too late in a race that was dominated by inside speed.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,9
 
 

RACE 4: NO ENTIENDO (#4)
Condo King figures to go off at a very short price, and it's no secret that his better efforts absolutely would crush this field. However, I have some serious questions about this runner's current form. He hasn't been seen since last August, and Rudy Rodriguez does not do particularly well in these situations. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years, he is just 1 for 11 with a $0.38 ROI when bringing horses back off layoffs of 180 days or longer and starting them for claiming tags of $20,000 or less. (Only one other horse in that sample even hit the board.) Instead, I'll take a shot against him with No Entiendo. This Gary Gullo trainee got a ridiculous ride last time, as he was unwisely rated in the early going and ended up going five wide around the far turn, losing all chance. Now he gets a positive rider switch to apprentice Hector Diaz and figures to be more forwardly placed.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6
 
 

RACE 6: MARKET SENTIMENT (#2)
If he's the one that Linda Rice elects to start – both of her runners have Cornelio Velasquez named to ride – then morning-line favorite Do Share is clearly the horse to beat as he attempts to win his fifth race out of his last six starts. While I certainly respect him, I'm more interested in one of his rivals who figures to go off at a more attractive price. Market Sentiment has been in excellent form since returning to the races for Rick Violette last fall. After two facile wins against weaker company, he stepped up to this level in his last two starts. Two back, he was chasing a pace that collapsed in a race dominated by subsequent graded stakes winner, Whitmore. He actually did well to nearly battle back for third in that spot. Then, last time, I felt that he was not ridden aggressively enough and ended up getting caught behind some tiring runners coming off the far turn. Despite having to wait for room, he actually finished well down the center of the track behind the in-form duo of Spartiatis and Still Krz. Drawing the rail this time, I'm hoping that new rider Manny Franco uses his speed to at least gain some better position. At his best, I believe he can beat this field.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with ALL
 
 

RACE 7: OUT OF TROUBLE (#4)
Addictive is going to be a very short price off her visually impressive score against open company at Tampa Bay Downs in her debut. However, she did not beat a strong field that day, and she's going to have to show better early speed to be competitive in this spot. I feel that she's going to be an underlay, so I want someone else. My best idea is Out of Trouble, who is projected to control the pace up front. Her turf races are actually better than they seem, considering that she was cooked in a fast pace in the Chelsey Flower and then encountered traffic trouble in November at Aqueduct. Her recent dirt races suggest that she may have improved since then.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6
Trifecta: 4 with 3,5,6 with 1,3,5,6,9,10