by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: CAN CAN BABE (#1)
I don’t trust either of the favorites in this race, Kate Is a Ten or Stroke Play. The former was able to regain her form to some extent for inner-track miracle worker Joe Parker in February, but I did not love the way she ran off the claim for David Jacobson. Now she’s coming back in seven days while dropping in for a bottom-level claiming tag. She’s not for me, nor is Stroke Play, who is being given away by Linda Rice after a dismal performance off the layoff. She has some back class, but she didn’t take a cent against a field that she should have beaten last time, and she ran to that lack of support. The one whom I want is Can Can Babe. I just don’t think this mare really wants to go two turns. She ran respectably enough last time when losing to Kate Is a Ten, but that was an honest pace that she set, and she had a right to get tired late. She had run well going one turn at the end of last year, seven furlongs should be within her scope, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she will be contesting the pace in a situation favoring the front-runners.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5,7
 
 

RACE 4: TAOISEACH (#3)
I know that Curious Cal is very likely to win this race on the front end. He ran the fastest TimeformUS Speed Figure in this field last time out, and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runners. That’s typically a lethal combination. However, this horse does have to get the seven furlongs today, and distances beyond six have proven to be somewhat of a problem for him. Furthermore, I just cannot resist turnbacks like Taoiseach, who figures to be a more generous price. I think this is a lateral trainer switch to Dominick Schettino, so I expect this runner to hold his typically consistent good form. While he handles two turns, he’s really more of a one-turn kind of runner, and he especially likes one turn over Aqueduct’s main track. He’s won at today’s distance and should be flying late.

Win: 3
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with 1,4,6
 
 

RACE 6: BANNER BILL (#6)
This is a fairly wide-open race in which there are many contenders. While none of these runners is a plodder early, I do think that Banner Bill’s speed makes him especially dangerous over his evenly matched rivals. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be up front in a situation favoring the leader. I thought this horse ran deceptively well last time after getting an uncharacteristically tentative ride from the apprentice. He seemed intent on rating Banner Bill despite the early pace being on the slow side. Banner Bill appeared to be getting out at the top of the stretch, and actually did well to rerally for a minor award. This time, Cornelio Velasquez, who has been more assertive lately, should not mess around and would be wise to just send this horse to the lead. Any residual moisture in the track would help him turn the tables on the favored Are We Not Men, who appears to regress sharply over wet tracks.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,5
 
 

RACE 7: CALIFORNIA SWING (#6)
Donwell figures to go favored off his decent second-place finish at Gulfstream last time out. He did well to grind it out, but he never really looked like a threat to win that race. I’m also not sure that he was facing the strongest field, and he may actually be stepping up in class as he moves north for this race. Into the Breach couldn’t overcome a slow pace at Laurel last time, but he had previously run well going one turn over the main track and is very much in the mix again. Both of those runners will be on my tickets, but I’m most interested in California Swing, who returns from a layoff for Christophe Clement. This horse ran fairly well in his lone dirt start as a 2year-old. While that was an off-the-turf race, it’s not as if his taking to dirt should come as the greatest surprise given his pedigree. Furthermore, Clement has outstanding numbers in this situation. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years, he is 9 for 19 (47 percent) with a $3.29 ROI when adding Lasix for the first time with non-debuting maidens on dirt.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,7,8