by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

>Visit TimeformUS for Friday's Highlight Horse and PPs

RACE 2: IN EQUALITY (#4)
Questions surround many of the runners in this race. You have no fewer than five horses stepping up out of the maiden ranks for the first time, so it’s difficult to know how they will stack up against winners. Furthermore, the most impressive of those maiden winners, Renwick, is coming off a lengthy layoff. The likely favorite is In Equality, and I see no reason to take a stand against this horse. He’s making his first start off the claim by Rudy Rodriguez, who gets a 100 trainer rating with this move. It’s nice to see that he bumps him up in class slightly for this race, and it’s not even as if he has to improve at all off his last effort. That day, he gamely battled back while racing down along the rail after getting passed at midstretch. He’s run some of his best races over the inner track in the past and is clearly the horse they all have to beat.

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,5,8

RACE 5: SONORA (#8)
Northern Screamer is probably the right favorite as she makes her first start off the claim by Danny Gargan while exiting a blowout win. That said, she beat a decidedly weaker field than the one she meets today, and it’s not as if she has a major speed figure edge over her foes. I’m inclined to look in other directions for better value, and one horse that intrigues me is Sonora. I know she looks a little slow on her recent form, but there are some reasons to believe she might be set to put forth a better performance today. The first thing to note is that she’s been overmatched in two of her last three starts. Those New York-bred $25,000 claiming races tend to come up just as tough as their open counterparts. The winners of those races, Majestic Jessica and Splendid Gold, would both be prohibitive favorites here. Sonora also had trips in those races, going wide three back before stumbling very badly at the start last time. On her best day, she has more speed than that, and I imagine that Angel Arroyo will use her more aggressively early. This is a subtly positive rider switch, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this filly wake up at a price.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,4,6

RACE 6: DEVILISH GRIN (#8)
Like many races on today’s card, this one is dominated by horses who have done their best work on the turf. While it’s certainly possible that some will also handle the dirt here, you’ll do better in the long run if you play against these horses. The dirt horse that most horseplayers will flock to is Investigator, who broke his maiden on the drop in class last time. However, that was not a strong effort when viewed in isolation. While he does have faster races in his form going back to the spring, I tend to think he’s gone the wrong way since then. He has the right connections and is a player here, but I want to take a shot with someone else. There isn’t that much speed in the race, so I’m interested in Devilish Grin. He’s getting a significant rider switch to Rajiv Maragh today and his recent form is actually not that bad. He lost all chance due to a ridiculously wide trip last time, but his prior two efforts were fine. The distance is a question mark, of course, but in a race where so many look dicey, I’m happy to take a horse that’s been in decent form.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 4,5,7,10

RACE 7: GENTRIFY (#8)
The coupled entry of Still Krz and Story to Tell figures to go off at a very short price. However, I’m not in love with either of them and would rather not bet them as underlays. Still Krz had everything his own way while racing on the front end last time (note the pace color-coded blue), and I don’t think the effort was quite as strong as it seems. Story to Tell earned a fast speed figure in his recent victory, but he also got an absolutely perfect trip in a race where others had trouble. I want to take a shot against them with Gentrify, who is faster than both of them early, if Jose Ortiz decides to use his speed. This horse is dangerous when left alone up front, and the Pace Projector is predicting that he’ll be leading this field in a situation favoring the frontrunner. He was overmatched last time, but his prior efforts, when beating Dreamsdocometrue and Roll Tide Roll, would make him awfully tough to beat today.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3,4
Trifecta: 8 with 1,2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,5,6