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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 1: Claiming $25,000 at 8.5 furlongs on turf

Assuming this race stays on the turf after mid-week rains, there are two runners that I view as potential wagering opportunities. IT'S A GIVEN (#8) will certainly give a better account of himself today as long as his rider gives him a fair chance. That was not the case last time, when he broke a half-step slowly and was out of position for the entire race. He got rank at multiple points during the race and even was trying to put in a late run in the stretch but was completely stymied in behind a wall of horses late. This Carlos Martin trainee is a free-running sort that wants to be forwardly placed, so John Velazquez needs to be more aggressive today. 

The other runner that I want to use is SPACE ODDITY (#7), who is getting some minor class relief after trying New York-bred allowance company last time. That day, his rider was too passive in the early going and allowed him to drop well off a slow pace (color-coded in blue). He was actually doing some serious running in the stretch, but was left with far too much ground to make up. He can be more forwardly placed than that, and he's certainly talented enough to compete at this level.

Win/Place: 7,8
Exacta Key Box: 7,8 with 2,4,7,8,10

Race 6: Claiming $16,000 at 8 furlongs

There are a few horses in this race that are going to take money despite the fact that they've run their best races on the turf, not the dirt. While I respect a horse like Shoppingforsilver, she's coming out of a fairly weak race and I'm not sure she has that much of an edge on this field. When isolating the dirt-route form of this field, I think it becomes fairly apparent that LADY CHOCOLOTTA (#2) is a major contender for top honors. I know she's sprinted recently, but she improved going a route of ground over this track last winter, and I think we can expect a similar kind of effort out of her today as she drops slightly in class. I know her last race looks disappointing, but the pace was mildly against her that day, and she just got going too late. If this low-percentage rider can work out a fair trip for her, I think she'll be tough to beat.

Win: 2

Race 7: Claiming $16,000 at 8 furlongs

While I don't quite expect to get him at his 20/1 morning line odds, I do think LYRICAL MIRACLE (#2) is a very interesting long shot proposition in this race. While plenty of runners in this race have run faster speed figures, the fact remains that he is the only confirmed frontrunner in the field and actually one of the only horses that isn't typically a closer. The Pace Projector depicts him on a clear lead early in a situation favoring the frontrunner, and Angel Arroyo has ridden this horse before and knows to use his speed. You can ignore his recent turf races; he's actually taking a significant drop in class off his prior dirt efforts. Furthermore, he's run some of the very best races of his career over this main track at Aqueduct. Current form is a concern, but now is the time to catch him at a decent price if he can still run.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,7,8,10

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight at 8.5 furlongs on turf

On turf, the horse to beat is APARTFROMTHECROWD (#5). Chad Brown does so well with his second-time starters (100 trainer rating), and this horse ran much better than it appears in his debut. Taken to the back of the pack behind a very slow pace (color coded in blue), he launched a wide run into the stretch at a time when you wanted to save as much ground as possible over the Saratoga turf course. We've seen the winner of that race come back to do some nice things since. 

Another horse that could be set to take a big step forward today is SNAP DECISION (#12). This colt ran deceptively well in his debut. Breaking from the outside post position, he never had any cover and launched a prolonged early move while going four-wide on the far turn. Shug McGaughey has excellent numbers with second-time starters, and this horse is certainly bred to improve with racing. He is a half-brother to Grade 1-winning turfer Mr Speaker, as well as up-and-coming allowance runner Fire Away. I expect Jose Ortiz to use more of his tactical speed from this outside post position today.

Win: 5,12
Exacta Box: 5,10,12
Trifecta Key Box: 5,12 with 5,12 with 2,4,8,10,11