by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: BANK ELABORATION (#9)
Luna Rising (#4) figures to take money on the drop in class, but she really hasn’t done that much running in either career start. I strongly prefer Bank Elaboration (#9), whose last performance suggests that she can beat this field. Not only was she involved in a duel for the lead, but she was racing down inside on Dec. 7, a day when the rail was dead on the inner track. All things considered, she actually hung on quite well through the lane to only miss second place by just more than a length. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche figures to be aggressive from this outside post position. I’d use her with the favorite as well as longshot Groton St Scout (#1), who also was against a bias last time.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,4,8

RACE 4: PROMISE THE SKY (#5)
The two favorites in this race, Sicilia Mike (#2) and Bartleby (#7), both have some questions to answer. The Pace Projector is predicting that Sicilia Mike will play out as the controlling speed as he stretches out in distance. However, that stretch-out is a major question mark for a horse who is quickly developing a reputation as a bridesmaid. Bartleby earned a strong speed figure when stretched out on dirt last time, but that came in an off-the-turf race and it’s fair to wonder what he was beating. I want to take a small shot against them with Promise the Sky (#5), who figures to improve off his debut. He was green in the early stages and completely lost contact with the field. However, once jockey Mike Luzzi got into him in the stretch, he really took off and was quickly making up ground across the wire. If you continue to watch the gallop-out, he actually passes the winner soon after the wire. This horse should get plenty of stamina from his dam, and he figures to offer some value.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,7

RACE 6: BENEVOLENCE (#6)
Of the four horses coming out of the same race on Dec. 8, Saratoga Giro (#4) probably ran the best race. He’s the horse to beat, but he doesn’t figure to offer much value as the likely favorite. Benevolence (#6) finished far behind him that day, but I think you can make the argument that his trip may have contributed to his dull performance. After showing speed early, jockey Jose Ortiz reined him in heading into the turn and ended up getting shuffled back quite a ways. He didn’t have any punch once clear late, but he also may have needed that race. I like that he’s drawn outside of the other speeds, and I think he can turn the tables on the aforementioned runners at what should be a square price. I would also use Sky Chaparral (#2), who earned a competitive TimeformUS Speed Figure last time and was claimed by David Jacobson out of that race, as well as the reliable Samadi Sky (#8).

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,8 

RACE 7: THIRD SON (#10)
I recognize that Danebury (#5) is an extremely likely winner of this race, and I’m not really suggesting that you take a strong stance against him at a short price. However, I do want to highlight one alternative. Third Son’s (#10) competitive efforts have been few and far between. Yet it’s worth noting that he’s run his two best races going a mile or farther, which is what he gets to do Friday. His most recent effort was a step forward, and now he gets an intriguing trainer upgrade to A.C. Avila as well as a positive rider switch to Rajiv Maragh. This is definitely a runner that I’ll be pushing underneath in exactas and trifectas, but he’s not without a chance to pull off an upset if Danebury fails to show up.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta: 5-10
Trifecta: 5 with 10 with 8,9
Trifecta: 5 with 8,9 with 10

RACE 8: BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON (#3)
Given the strong recent performances by runners sent out by trainer Rudy Rodriguez, Stormin Monarcho (#4) has to be considered the horse to beat off the claim. However, he’s been beating up on weaker company in recent starts, and I’m inclined to take a shot against him. My alternative is Backsideofthemoon (#3). I admit that I've been a fan of this horse, but I think he's landed in a good spot. Even though he finished off the board, his return race was actually quite encouraging. Six-and-a-half furlongs is too short for him, but I loved the way he finished through the final furlong. He took a big step forward when stretched out off his sprint debut at the start of his career, and I'm expecting similar improvement in his second start back from a layoff here. While Stormin Monarcho may play out as the controlling speed, Backsideofthemoon does possess tactical speed that will allow him to stay close if jockey Rosario Montanez decides to use it.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,5
Trifecta: 3 with 4,5 with 1,2,4,5