by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: MORETHANJUSTHELLO (#3)
While proven dirt horses like Blind Devotion and Army Brat will attract their fair share of support, I believe that Morethanjusthello is simply a more talented racehorse. I usually shy away from runners like this, who have found most of their success on turf, but this filly's dirt form is actually not as bad as it might appear at first glance. She had a serious trip in her debut and then she was just badly overmatched in her second start. Her two dirt races on the NYRA circuit saw her earn decent speed figures, and it's reasonable to assume that she's improved since then. She's hardly the kind of horse I would single, but I could play her if she's going off at 3/1 or higher.

Win: 3
Double: 3-2

RACE 3: STREET LORD (#2)
Many of the shorter prices in this race are very hard to trust. Morning line favorite Storm Pursuit has consistently earned the fastest speed figures, but you have to wonder long he can hold his form for these low-profile connections now that he's pushing nine years old. The two Finger Lakes shippers look like viable alternatives based on numbers, but these horses just seem to routinely underperform when shipped to NYRA. The only runner that I can reasonably support is Street Lord. He's just taking a significant drop in class out of much tougher $25,000 claiming races and getting a major rider upgrade to Angel Arroyo. He's actually been in decent form for Gary Gullo, and I think he gets the job done today.

Win: 2

RACE 5: RO BEAR (#3)
Given a general lack of pace in this race, I suppose morning line favorite Chilly Bon Bon is the horse to beat. However, I think his last race looks more encouraging in print than it does when watching the race. The main track at Aqueduct was favoring outside paths that day, and he was very much with the flow through the latter half of that race while never seriously threatening. I want someone else, and the horse that intrigues me most is Ro Bear. While I'm generally skeptical of Finger Lakes form, this guy actually beat a decent horse in Bluegrascat's Smile last time, and he had previously run better than it might appear in his NYRA dirt races. That was especially true two back when he made a good late run into a slow pace against a much tougher field. Two turns is what this horse really wants, and he finds himself in a great spot today.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,9
Trifecta: 3 with 1,4,5,9 with 1,4,5,9

RACE 6: SARATIAGO (#3)
In a race that is seriously lacking in inspiring dirt form, I don't mind taking a shot with Saratiago even though her better races have come on turf. This filly has actually run plenty of competitive speed figures on dirt—not to mention the fact that she has amassed the bulk of her career earnings over this surface. She's been in the best form of her career lately, and she's taking a significant drop in class. If Rajiv Maragh can keep her reasonably close to what figures to be a moderate pace, I think she might be able to run them all down late at a decent price.

Win/Place: 3 

RACE 7: DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING (#1)
This is easily the most interesting race on the card. Send It In figures to take plenty of money as he comes in riding a four-race winning streak. However, he hasn't been seen in many months and is clearly facing the toughest assignment of his career. I prefer others. Muqtaser and Voluntario are coming off blowout wins around one turn, in which each earned field-best speed figures of 124. Repeats of either of those efforts would make them tough to beat here, but it's fair to question whether either of them will be able to duplicate those performances around two turns. That said, I want to take a shot with another runner at a slightly better price. Doyouknowsomething has run competitive speed figures on a number of occasions, and I have a feeling that he could benefit from a change of tactics today. There is not much early speed signed on for this race, and he is one of the few horses that have successfully taken fields wire to wire in the past. He never got the chance to do that last time after breaking a bit slowly from the rail and getting shuffled back to last behind a slow pace (color-coded in blue). However, today he has two closers drawn to his outside, and I imagine that Jose Ortiz will be more aggressive. This horse can get brave when he gets to the front, and I think stretching out to two turns will benefit him.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,6,7
Trifecta: 1 with 2,5,6,7 with ALL