by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: LOYAL HEART (#6)
My interest is piqued any time I come across a race in which the favorites appear to be as riddled with vulnerabilities as those in Friday's third. Let's start with the shortest price on the morning line, Stroke Play. Obviously this mare has run races during her career that would obliterate this field. On the other hand, she has not been seen since early September, and is making her first start off the claim for Linda Rice. When Rice risks runners like this for bottom-level price tags, it's usually a sign that she's looking for someone to take a bad claim off her hands. Stroke Play can certainly win, but I'd never bet her at a short price. The other two runners that are likely to take money appear to be similarly untrustworthy. Can Can Babe makes her first start for a trainer that gets a TimeformUS Trainer Rating of 0 at Aqueduct, and Midnight Bounty has never contested a dirt race beyond seven furlongs. I want someone else, so I'm going to take a shot with Loyal Heart. I thought this filly had a chance against a much tougher field last weekend, but she ended up racing too close to a pace that collapsed. Now she lands in a far more realistic spot against $16,000 claimers. She has run speed figures that put her in the mix, and her recent form is not nearly as poor as it might seem. In fact, her race two back was actually a strong performance considering that she threw her head at the start and missed the break by several lengths.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3
 
 

RACE 6: SANDY STRIKES (#6)
I can't argue with anyone who views this as Zabaione's race to lose. While he's been a bit inconsistent, a repeat of his most recent effort would make him virtually untouchable. That day, he almost ran down the in-form Papa Shot while pulling eight lengths clear of the rest of the field. His 2-5 morning-line odds are not really an exaggeration of his chances of winning against this group. However, I do still think this is a playable race if you're looking at exactas and trifectas. That is primarily because the longest shot on the morning line has a legitimate chance to finish in the money. I’ll be playing against horses like Primo Pentimento, who comes out of weak maiden-claiming races, and Ode to the Hunt, who is going to take money primarily based on this turf form. Sandy Strikes, at anything close to his 20-1 morning line odds, should offer far better value. This Leo O’Brien trainee is in deceptively good form. He was racing against inside biases on both Dec. 9 and Dec. 31. In the latter effort, he actually ran an excellent race to be fifth, closing mildly in a race that was dominated by the front-runners. Some may hold his last race against him, but he had an equipment problem early on and his rider was given no choice but to pull him up. He's clearly better than that and he now gets a positive rider switch to Dylan Davis.

Win/Place: 6
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with ALL
Trifecta: 1 with ALL with 6
 
 

RACE 7: ANYDAYISMYDAY (#4)
The horse to beat is My Fair Lily, who is attempting to put together back-to-back victories after winning her maiden last time. She earned a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort, and the number was validated by the subsequent performance of runner-up Shimmering Moon. My only problem with her is that she's quite obvious and goes for a barn that tends to get overbet in these situations. I have to use her, but I want to look for value elsewhere. My alternative is Anydayismyday, who returns from a lengthy layoff for low-profile connections. Last winter, this filly appeared to be almost incapable of running a bad race. She showed up with solid performances in all of her dirt sprints, and continued to improve with every start. She put in her finest effort when last seen in the Cicada, where she finished third in a tight finish. All three of her competitors that day went on to win stakes, so that was a field of some quality despite its small size. I have no idea if she's completely fit for this race, but I like that this barn has named one of the top riders at the meet. She could go off at a square price in a race where I'm just not enamored with any of the other options.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,6,7,8