by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 5: JAMES LANE (#6) / HERE COMES TOMMY (#2)
Poor Here Comes Tommy may have run the best race in each of his last two starts, when he was racing wide against inside speed biases. All things considered, he ran extremely well to finish third in both races. Typically, I wouldn't be able to resist picking this kind of trip horse, but how can I have any confidence that he'll win considering his lifetime record? He's won just two races in his 44-start career while finishing second and third on 24 occasions. He's likely to get some cut of the purse here, but I have to pick someone else on top. I thought that James Lane ran slightly better than it appears last time. He didn't seem totally comfortable rating inside of horses in the early stages. Then, at the quarter pole, his rider made a poor decision to try to cut inside of a tiring runner that was drifting toward the rail. I'm not fully convinced that he really wants two turns, but I think he can do better than his last performance and there aren't any runners as good as that race's winner, Papa Shot, in this field.

Win: 6
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1,4,7
Trifecta: 6 with 1,4,7 with 2
 
 

RACE 6: MAKING HAVOC (#1)
While Da Wildcat Girl has been keeping the best company and is a deserving favorite, I have to take a shot against her with Making Havoc. This mare ran much better than it appears last time. You really need to pull up the replay and watch the first quarter mile of the race to appreciate how badly she was compromised by trouble at the start. That race featured a fast pace (indicated by the red color-coding in TimeformUS PPs), so it's remarkable that she was still battling it out at the finish. There is other speed signed on for this event, but if Making Havoc runs as well as she did last time, I think she can withstand the pressure.

Win: 1
Exacta Box: 1,2
 
 

RACE 7: CINDERELA EL CROME (#7)
The two obvious players are Toga Challenger and Two Charley's. The former ran extremely well in his debut against a decent field for that level. He's stepping up slightly in class today, but that race earned a fast TimeformUS Speed Figure and Linda Rice is not known for having her first-time starters fully cranked to win their debuts. Two Charley’s ran his best race at this distance when second to El Areeb three starts back. He should appreciate the turnback in distance here. I'll use both of these runners, but I want to take a small shot with a bigger price that should not be ignored. There isn't that much speed signed on for this race, which figures to make Cinderela el Crome dangerous. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the frontrunner. He's actually run decent TimeformUS Speed Figures on a number of occasions. Last time he set a fast pace in a race that collapsed, and he's actually run decent TimeformUS Speed Figures on a number of occasions.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,4
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with 7
 
 

RACE 8: CHIEF LION (#4)
Chief Lion is not going to be much of a price in this race, but he is also an extremely likely winner. This field is filled with horses coming off layoffs, and many would need to produce lifetime best performances to take down the in-form Chief Lion. This grey David Jacobson trainee finished off the board at Laurel last time, but he actually ran extremely well after contesting a solid pace and making a serious run at the eventual winner around the far turn. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will have a significant pace advantage in a race that does not feature any other frontrunners.

Win: 4
Trifecta: 4 with 1,2,5,6 with 1,2,5,6
 
 

RACE 9: PSYCHIC ENERGY (#3)
According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years Linda Rice is 19 for 42 (45 percent), with an ROI of $3.71, when sending out second-time starting maidens in sprints on the inner track. Her entrant in this race, Psychic Energy, probably needed his first start and had a right to fade in the late stages after going wide around the far turn. Others have undoubtedly run faster, but it's unwise to ignore statistics like that Linda Rice stat, especially when she wins with horses at decent prices.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,7