by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 4: BI LIGHT OF DAY (#6)
The horse to beat is obviously the morning-line favorite Kate Is a Ten. She finished a decent second at a similar claiming level last time after racing against a series of much tougher fields in her prior starts. Joe Parker's runners have been running exceptionally well at this meet, and she figures to work out a good stalking trip in a race that is not exactly loaded with speed types. While I'll certainly use her, there is another horse in this race that I think deserves a long look at a much bigger price. Bi Light of Day is taking a huge drop in class after facing New York-bred allowance company in most of her prior starts. She has not made much of an impact in those races, but she has also been badly overmatched. Bi Light of Day has rewarded her connections when they've dropped her into claiming races in the past, and they do so again today. However, this time she's running against the cheapest field that she's ever faced. I'm not sure that she's going to get enough pace to close into, but I know she handles the distance and will be running on late at a price.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Box: 5,6
 
 

RACE 6: STRETCH’S STONE (#9)
One of the things that's immediately apparent about this race is that there isn't very much speed in the field. While the Pace Projector is not predicting a slow pace, it does indicate that Ethan Hunt and Bourbon Empire – typically closers – will be among those closest to the front end. The only horse with true early speed is Stretch's Stone, who is drawn in the far outside post. His TimeformUS Early Pace Rating of 118 is over 20 points higher than his nearest rival, and the Pace Projector indicates that he will be clearly in front early. His rider, Irad Ortiz, would be well-advised to use this horse's speed to his advantage. While Stretch's Stone has never raced beyond six furlongs, I'm not opposed to him stretching out. There's enough stamina breeding on his dam's side of the pedigree to counteract the speedy influence of sire Bustin Stones. This horse ran well to break his maiden last time when chasing the leaders outside through fast fractions (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) on a day when you wanted to be on the rail. The race collapsed behind him, but he never stopped running while drawing off to a commanding victory. He's the one I want to key on, but I will use him with a few rivals in the exotics: Can You Diggit ran well to break his maiden last out, Dynamax Prime has been steadily improving with each start, Bourbon Empire may not want to go this far but possesses serious talent, and Jaime's Angel should appreciate the class relief as he drops out of graded stakes company.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,5,7,8
 
 

RACE 7: JUST GOT OUT (#8)
This field features a few runners stepping up in class off strong performances against weaker company. The one that is likely to attract the most attention is She's So Fine, who has been a rejuvenated racehorse ever since her connections switched her back to dirt. She's made identical wide, sweeping moves in her last two starts while earning speed figures that make her a major player in this race. This is the toughest field she's faced yet this winter, but I think she may be ready to handle the step up in class. The only drawback to betting She's So Fine is that she's unlikely to offer any value. However, there is another runner in this race that looks like a potential overlay. Just Got Out is not as likely to win the race as the aforementioned favorite, but she doesn't deserve to go off at a significantly higher price. This mare ran deceptively well last time in her first start for trainer Carlos Martin. Just Got Out resents strong restraint from her riders and instead prefers to make an outside run. Unfortunately, breaking from the inside post position, she was rank and throwing her head about while boxed in down along the rail for the early portion of the race. Considering that trouble, she actually did well to pass a few runners in the stretch while staying on for fourth. It's also worth noting that the inner track appeared to favor runners making outside moves on Feb. 2, so she may have been hindered by racing inside throughout. If she runs back to that effort this time while getting a more favorable trip, I think she has a chance to pull off the upset.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 4,6,7
Trifecta: 7,8 with 7,8 with 1,4,6,10