by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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RACE 2: ONE SIDED (#7)
When I was making my first pass through this race, I had originally arrived at the conclusion that Taoiseach is probably just too good for this field. However, as I watched his last race, I couldn’t help but come away disappointed. After all, he received the kind of trip that he typically relishes. The pace was strong enough for a closer like him, and he rode the rail – something he likes to do in almost all of his races – on a day when the rail really was the place to be. Sure, he took a minor bump at the quarter pole, but he had no excuse to flatten out so badly in the late stages. He can win, but I wonder if he’s starting to head in the wrong direction, hence the drop in class. If I’m going to take a shot against him, I’m going to place my trust in Jason Servis and his prowess off the claim (100 TimeformUS Trainer Rating). His new acquisition One Sided has been in terrible form, which makes this claim all the more unusual. So it can only be taken as a good sign that he runs back without a layoff at the same level for which he was claimed last time. Furthermore, he is the only major contender with any tactical speed in a race that is projected to favor runners on or near the lead.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,6
RACE 3: ROMAN REIGN (#7)
Northern Screamer is the horse to beat, but I haven’t loved either of her races for Danny Gargan. Dreamboat Annie is slightly interesting on the drop in class, but I wish she had shown a little more life last time. While I’m worried about the pace in this race because there aren’t many runners with speed, I have to bet closer Roman Reign. This mare has simply been facing much tougher fields and she hasn’t been disgraced in the majority of those efforts. I can excuse her most recent performance on Jan. 2 because she was hardly the only horse not to handle that messy surface. She was competitive in her only other start for Jeremiah Englehart and now she lands in a realistic spot.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,4,6
RACE 5: CHRISTENING (#5)
For me, this race is all about Christening, who finally gets back into the kind of spot where she can be competitive. She just has not been well placed in recent starts. She had no chance in the Joseph A. Gimma three back, and was hurt by the lack of pace in that race. Then she didn’t handle the turf two back, and clearly did not care for two turns on the dirt last time. This filly has had a limited number of chances sprinting at the right level. She was green in her debut, but ran deceptively well that day, and then she put in a strong effort to break her maiden at Saratoga, earning a speed figure that would probably best this field.
Win: 5
RACE 8: CAUSE I’M ALEX (#2)
While it only attracted a field of seven, this is a pretty appealing feature race for a Friday on the inner track. You can make a pretty solid case for almost all of the participants. The discussion has to start with the pace, because there are a number of runners in here that prefer to be placed on or near the lead in the early going. Of those, Brimstone and Ryder Road have rarely been successful without the early lead, so something is going to have to give on the front end. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast and contested pace. Of those likely to be near the front, I prefer Cards of Stone and Becker’s Galaxy. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Cards of Stone makes his first start in just over eight months after his 3-year-oldcampaign went south last spring. However, he showed potential on this course last year and is a major player if he can get back into form. Becker’s Galaxy is very logical as he drops in class after contesting two straight New York-bred stakes. I’ll use both, but my top pick is one of the few closers in the race, Cause I’m Alex. While I typically shy away from horses based at Finger Lakes, this Jeffrey Englehart trainee has actually run quite well away from that circuit recently. Last time, on Jan. 13, he earned his best speed figure with a better-than-it-appears finish at this level. Jan. 13 was a day that was favoring horses with speed on the rail, and Cause I’m Alex finished third after a wide trip. He’s in career form and will be a decent price here.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,6
Trifecta: 2 with 3,4,6 with ALL