by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS for this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.

RACE 6: MR. BUFF (#4)
I suppose that morning line favorite La Cat Warrior can win this race, but his last effort was disappointing. He contested a slow pace (indicated by the blue color-coding in PPs) but had no answer when the closers made their stretch runs. I'll use them, but others intrigue me more. One runner that I don't want any part of is Remstin, whose speed figure improvement last time was likely a function of an inside trip on a day when the rail was golden. The runner that I want to bet is Mr. Buff. It's starting to seem this horse may just not want to be a router, and the turnback in distance could really suit him. After all, his lone sibling, Organic Gemini, was a confirmed sprinter. In addition to potentially not wanting to go two turns last time, Mr. Buff was compromised by a four-wide trip against the gold rail of Dec. 17. He's in better form than that performance suggests, and I think he can make a late impact here at a decent price.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,7,8

RACE 7: SIR BOND (#6)
Patton Proud earned an eye-catching 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his last-out win, but that came against much cheaper foes and now he faces more early pace pressure. Mewannarose is an admirable old warrior, but he’s changed hands quite a few times during the past year, and you have to wonder if he’s going to be able to hold his form for the new barn. I’m trying to beat the favorites with Sir Bond. At least I know this horse is in reasonably good form right now. I felt that Sir Bond got into the clear a bit too late last time and was finishing best of all across the wire. I don't mind this trainer switch since this low-profile conditioner has sent out a couple of horses that have performed well in recent weeks. Additionally, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that Sir Bond could be one to show speed in a situation favoring horses on or near the lead.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,5,8

RACE 8: REPENT TWICE (#3) / RIFF RAFF (#6)
This is probably the most interesting race on the card. Fox Rules comes in as a deserving favorite off a strong effort at Finger Lakes. That day, he was forced to chase the speedy Crackerjack Jones through fast early fractions (indicated by the red color-coding) before putting that foe away and holding off the closers. Now he gets a positive trainer switch to Michelle Nevin and is offered up for the $40,000 claiming tag. I’ll certainly use him, but my top selection is Repent Twice. This guy lands in Charlton Baker’s barn after a series of layoffs. Going back to last winter, Repent Twice was in career form, putting in his reliable late run on multiple occasions. I can excuse his last start at Finger Lakes – his first in more than eight months – and believe that he can rebound here as long as some pace materializes up front. That said, I also want to use the stretching-out Riff Raff at what should be an even larger price. I know I’m late to the party as he got the job done at 70-1 last time, but he nevertheless ran quite well that day and has proven he can handle a route of ground in the past. Almost every horse to run back out of that race has improved their speed figures – TimeformUS and Beyer – next time out. I wouldn’t take this horse lightly despite the low-profile connections.

Win/Place: 3,6
Exacta Key Box: 3,6 with 3,4,6,8,11

RACE 9: RIGHT BEN (#12)
Morning-line favorite Italian Syndicate made a somewhat successful return from a four-month layoff last time, finishing second at this level. However, it was basically a two-horse race between him and the winner, and Margarita Sunrise absolutely dominated this ridgling. He can win here, but I prefer others. Of the horses coming out of the ninth race Nov. 9, the one whom I want is Right Ben. The rail was not the place to be that day at Aqueduct, and he was battling for the lead while racing down inside the entire way. He had been overmatched in his prior maiden special weight races, and I like that he showed some signs of life with the drop in class last time. Now he’s drawn outside of all of the other speed and he should be a square price.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 2,3,11,13,14