by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 5: MR. CANADA (#6)
It's important to remember when handicapping this race that all of these horse are running for the $12,500 tag for a reason. Some have run faster speed figures, or have been facing tougher competition, but you would think that their connections would be running for higher price tags if they expected to get back to their better races. With that in mind, I would be careful around short prices such as Lunar Rover and Johannesburg Smile. Both have run races that would beat this field, but it's somewhat disconcerting that they're even entered in this race. Erik the Red did win at this level last time out, but you would imagine that Linda Rice, who is known for placing horses realistically, would have moved him up in class if she thought he was going to perform that well again. I want someone else, and I think the right horse is Mr. Canada. He, too, is dropping in class, but at least this is a logical drop. He simply is not going to win for the $25,000 tag, since those horses are better than he. His speed figures actually make him competitive against this group, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting he will be loose on the lead in a situation favoring the frontrunner.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,7,8
Trifecta: 6 with 1,4,7,8 with 1,4,7,8

RACE 7: PROUD ZIP (#1)
This is probably the most difficult handicapping puzzle on the card, as almost all of the top contenders are coming into this race in great form, albeit from a multitude of different directions. In Equality, Going Strong, and Dogtown are all exiting blowout victories against lesser competition. Additionally, they all managed to win those races in their first starts off either claims or trainer switches, with all moving into powerful claiming operations. Since then, both Going Strong and In Equality have each been claimed again, and go out for new barns today. The one that I find most dangerous out of that group is Going Strong, who moves up in class for new trainer Linda Rice after showing improved tactical speed last time. However, all of these horses are going to take money and I see some alternatives at better prices. My top pick is Proud Zip. I know that it looks like this horse's form has completely fallen apart, but his last race is not nearly as bad as it looks. Horses that raced on the rail on Dec. 7 were at a serious disadvantage all day, and he spent the majority of his trip down inside. I know his prior sprint effort was similarly disappointing, but he's never run particularly well sprinting on dirt. I think it's a positive sign that Rick Violette is not dropping him in class, and this horse would be a top contender here if he could get back to his better dirt route efforts.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6,7,8,10

RACE 8: MAHABODHI TREE (#3)
The two favorites are Malibu Princess and Ring Knocker, and I'm not enamored with either. The former was a little wide last time, but she also had her chance at the top of the stretch and just wasn't good enough to catch a loose-on-the-lead Play Unified. That race was run at a time when her trainer, Rudy Rodriguez, was winning everything, and his barn has cooled somewhat since. Ring Knocker moves up in class off a win last time, but she did so after getting a perfect trip in a race where the pace completely collapsed. I want someone else, and I think that Mahabodhi Tree is an intriguing option. This filly showed some promise early in her career before being sent to the sidelines. I know her races since the return don't look too encouraging, but her most recent performance is actually much stronger than it appears. She went extremely wide around the far turn, racing in about the five path throughout. All things considered, she didn't run that much worse than Malibu Princess, and she's likely to go off at a much higher price than that rival here.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6

RACE 9: COLD GONE HOT (#9)
In an otherwise inscrutable race, I'm defaulting to a Linda Rice second-time starter. This is one of the strongest and most consistently rewarding trainer moves on the circuit. Linda Rice, who gets just a 66 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with her first-time starters, gets an outstanding 100 Trainer Rating with second-time starters in a fairly large sample of runners. Furthermore, she does well with horses dropping from maiden special weights into maiden claiming company (98 Trainer Rating), which applies to her entrant Cold Gone Hot. This runner didn't show much in his debut, but that race came against much stiffer competition, as both Wine Not and Jet Black have since gone on to successful performances against allowance company. His dam was a pure sprinter, so perhaps this turnback in distance will suit him.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,6,11