by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: TIMBER (#4)
Lord Commander is the horse to beat as he drops in class after losing at the $50,000 level last time. Horses racing on the rail seemed to have an advantage Dec. 8, and he went three wide around the turn. That said, he still has been a disappointment and it seems like he's heading in the wrong direction for a barn that has not exactly been winning at its typical rate at this meet. Furthermore, he will likely have to deal with the early speed of Pop the Hood, so he may not have an uncontested lead. I have to use him, but I'm hoping to beat him with Timber. This horse raced against an even more pronounced rail bias last time when he made a wide rally to get up to win for a lesser claiming tag. The waters get a bit deeper today, but I'm taking it as a positive sign that Chris Englehart, who gets a 91 Trainer Rating second off the claim, is moving him up in class. This horse always showed potential on dirt and he may just be putting it all together now.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,6

RACE 4: NO HAYNE NO GAYNE (#10) / TEQUILA SUNDAY (#8)
If Easy Way Out draws into this race off the also-eligible list, she will be a strong favorite. However, she will have to deal with a poor post position and handle a route of ground for the first time. While she's run two of the fastest speed figures in the race, she was still somewhat disappointing last time, only making a minor late impact while racing on the best part of the track in the stretch. I see two alternatives. No Hayne No Gayne actually may have run a better race than Easy Way Out last time despite finishing fourth. Whereas Easy Way Out saved ground, No Hayne No Gayne went four wide around the far turn and stayed on well in the stretch. According to DRF Formulator, progeny of Haynesfield win dirt routes at a healthy rate of 19%, so I'm not that concerned about the stretch-out in distance. At a bigger price, I also have to use Tequila Sunday, whose debut effort was better than it looks. She was away sluggishly that day and was outrun for the first part of the race before launching a prolonged move into contention around the turn. She flattened out in the last furlong, but has a right to move forward. She's not a turf horse, but she is bred to stretch out as a half-sister to routers Jc's American Dream and Jc's Shooting Star.

Win: 10
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Box: 8,10,11

RACE 5: NO TANX BLUE CHIP (#7)
Mr. Charles and Hangry are coming off slightly more encouraging efforts, but I would rather bet No Tanx Blue Chip in this spot. I know this son of Congaree has had his fair share of chances, but I believe he is in better form than it appears. He has had excuses in his last two starts. At Parx two back he was racing on a dead rail over a wet track that he may not have cared for. That race was dominated by horses making outside moves and he just never had a chance to get involved. Then last time, with blinkers added for the first time, he was too keen and got involved in a fast pace, indicated by the red color-coding in TimeformUS PPs. I'm hoping that this time Dylan Davis can work out a stalking trip on No Tanx Blue Chip from his outside post position. This horse can get the distance and has run races fast enough to beat this field.

Win/Place: 7

RACE 8: STORM CELL (#9)
I've picked Storm Cell in her last two starts, and she's been terrible. However, I believe that this filly deserves one more chance. She clearly did not handle the wet tracks she encountered in her last two races. Prior to that, she had put in a good effort in her November return to the races, running along a rail that was probably not the best place to be when horses rallying outside had an advantage. That race proves that she hasn't completely lost the good form that was on display earlier in her career. This filly has more speed than she showed in her last two efforts, and I believe she can be more forwardly placed over a fast track. Carlos Martin gets a strong 86 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with horses stretching out in distance.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,10,12