by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: SPOTTY ZEALOUS (#2)
If Spotty Zealous manages to repeat his most recent effort, which came against maiden special weight company, it is very unlikely that he will lose this race. While the final time of that race was not particularly remarkable, Spotty Zealous contested an extremely fast pace (indicated by the red color-coding) in a race that collapsed in the stretch and was dominated by late runners. The TimeformUS Speed Figure of 102 that he earned for that effort would win the vast majority of races at this level, and his 131 early pace rating suggests that he can spurt well clear of his rivals in the opening furlongs. Jaime's Angel (4th) and Sicilia Mike (2nd) came back from Spotty Zealous’s maiden win to finish first and second in a maiden special weight race, earning comparable speed figures.

Win: 2
Trifecta: 2 with 5,7 with 3,4,5,6,7
Trifecta: 2 with 3,4,6 with 5,7

RACE 6: YAKOV (#8)
I am quite skeptical of the morning-line favorite Put It Forward, who was not particularly competitive in a couple of turf races after returning from a lengthy layoff and now switches to dirt. While he's run well enough over the main track, cheaper horses often have more trouble making these kinds of surface switches as they get older. Given a slightly better price, I prefer Yakov. Not only was he facing tougher company when he ran just six days ago, but he was also racing against an intense inside bias. He went three wide around most of the turn in a race dominated by horses that stayed near the rail. Due to the prevalence of front-running winners on the card, the day is color-coded pink in TimeformUS PPs, indicating a speed bias. Yakov has handled distances around a mile and is capable of running speed figures that can win this race.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,4,9

RACE 7: MONTE MAN (#3)
While it drew only six runners, this race is one of the more interesting on the card. The horse to beat is Holding Aces. This speedy runner gets a positive trainer switch to Chris Englehart, whose barn has been on quite a roll at this meet. He's run plenty of speed figures that would make him formidable, but he will have to show up with a slightly improved performance, since his last race was disappointing. Bene and Only You are coming off reasonably fast maiden wins against similar company, but must prove that they can handle the step up in class, as well as greater early pace pressure. While he's not the classiest horse in the race, the runner that interests me most is Monte Man. I just feel that this horse is doing well at the moment. He actually ran deceptively well last time, battling back to the wire in a race dominated by closers after hitting the front a bit too early. His Dec. 31 workout jumps off the screen as the second fastest of 178 drills that morning, and now John Terranova is moving him up in class despite the fact that he lost for a lesser claiming tag last time. I think it's possible that we haven't seen the best of this horse yet.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,6
Trifecta: 2, 3 with 2, 3 with ALL

RACE 8: SPLENDID GOLD (#7)
Woodville will probably win this race if she runs back to her Saratoga efforts. On the other hand, she's going to be a very short price here and there's no guarantee that she'll be ready to produce her best effort off a layoff in her first start for a new barn. A bunch of horses are coming out of the same race Dec. 14 at this level. Most didn't run particularly well, but there is one that I feel deserves another chance. Splendid Gold was a victim of a terrible trip last time. She wasn't quite fast enough to get to the lead early, as nearly the entire field was vying for a forward position. She entered the far turn going about five wide, at which point Angel Arroyo was forced to ease her off the pace to save some ground. She seemed to overreact to his restraint and ended up dropping out of contention, costing herself any chance in the race. While she was left with an insurmountable gap to make up, she was actually doing some running in the stretch and did well to lose by only just over four lengths. If she can get better position in this race, I believe she can be competitive at a price. I would use her with favored Woodville, as well as class droppers Zippity Zoom and Big Mara.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,9
Trifecta: 1,3,9 with 1,3,9 with 7