by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: MR. MASSENA (#5)
Many of the top contenders in this race have little to no experience going a route of ground on dirt. The likely favorite, Conquest Prankster, has never raced beyond seven furlongs. This colt gets a mild trainer upgrade to Linda Rice (93 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with runners making the first start for her barn off trainer switches) and comes off a decent third-place finish behind the talented Blue Belt. He may stretch out, but I think there's a more intriguing option at a bigger price. Mr. Massena ran like a horse who badly needed a race in his first start. He was off slowly and raced greenly for much of the race, swerving at the top of the stretch before making a mild, late rally. He galloped out well past the wire, indicating that he may have had more in the tank. He hasn't been seen for many months, but Bill Mott gets a 94 Trainer Rating with runners coming off layoffs of this type. This colt is by the decent route influence Flatter and gets some stamina from his dam's family, so he figures to appreciate the stretch-out. Hopefully, a hustling Kendrick Carmouche can get him into the race earlier.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4
 
 

RACE 6: FIVE STAR RAMPAGE (#5)
Shimmering Moon figures to off as a heavy favorite off the strength of her 17-length maiden score last time out. While she was beating a weak group that day, she ran yet another fast TimeformUS Speed Figure after earning strong numbers in her prior starts against tougher maiden fields. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she will be racing on a clear lead early in a situation favoring the front-runner. She'll be tough to beat, but I want to take a shot against her with Five Star Rampage, who figures to offer better value. This Jimmy Jerkens-trained filly ran deceptively well last time. Racing three to four wide throughout over a racetrack that was tilted toward inside runners, she actually did well to stay on for third. Her young apprentice rider, Hector Diaz, has been winning races in greater numbers lately and typically places his horses well. She should work out a great stalking trip if she's good enough.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,7,8,10
Trifecta: 5,8 with 5,8 with 1,7,10
 
 

RACE 8: THIRST FOR VICTORY (#1)
Apartfromthecrowd is the horse to beat as he drops out of graded-stakes company into this softer N1X allowance race. However, the jury is still out regarding how talented this colt actually is. After all, he rode a strong rail bias to win his maiden on Jan. 14 and again in the Withers was racing inside on a day when the rail seemed to be yielding an advantage. Both of those performances may not be quite as strong as they seem, and I'm not sure he actually has that great of an edge over this field in terms of quality. I'm even more against the runner who the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting will be in front early. Oneballnostrikes rode a golden rail to victory on Jan. 13, and his prior speed figures are not fast enough to make him a major player here. Instead, I want to take a shot with Thirst for Victory. While the time was slow, this colt beat a decent runner to win his maiden at Saratoga last summer. He was overmatched in the Champagne but didn't run that badly in his next start at Parx. He seems like a horse who wants to stretch out, and he just got going too late last time after having to alter course at the top of the stretch. Todd Pletcher has great numbers stretching out young horses.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,7,8
 
 

RACE 9: OUR AMERICAN STAR (#6)
In a finale that looks wide open, I'm gravitating toward a runner who figures to get overlooked in the wagering. Our American Star goes out for low-profile connections and has gone off at huge prices in almost all of his starts. However, this horse has been subtly improving in his recent races. Two back, he set a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the TimeformUS PPs) while going a distance that is probably too far for him. Then, last time, he was no match for the classier Mission Leader but nevertheless ran well after getting carried out at the top of the stretch. He's getting a very positive rider switch to Hector Diaz as he takes a needed drop in class.

Win/Place: 6