by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: GREGG’S BEAUTY (#3)
I don't deny that Moneybrook is the horse to beat. While she did fade in the stretch of her last start, it was not nearly as poor of a performance as it seems. She was dueling for the lead four-wide all the way around the turn and only stopped in the final furlong when the race was collapsing. That also may have been a tougher field than the one she's meeting today. I respect her, but I think that her main pace rival is going to offer better value in this race. Gregg's Beauty looks to be off form, but – like Moneybrook – she hasn't run nearly as badly as it might appear. She was racing on a dead rail three back; she was unwisely rated after breaking sharply two back; and then she was chasing wide over a track tilted toward favoring inside runners last time. She gets a very positive rider switch to Hector Diaz, who isn't shy about using his mounts' speed, and the cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs should suit her.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,5,8
 
 

RACE 2: AFLEET MARTINI (#3)
If Victory Is Sweet can recover any semblance of the form that he once displayed as a 3-year-old, he will be nearly impossible for this field to overcome. On the other hand, his recent form has been abysmal, and he's taking an alarming drop in class while coming off yet another lengthy layoff. In other words, this horse is impossible to trust at a short price. There are a few interesting options that could serve as potential alternatives, but the one that interests me most is Afleet Martini. This horse has run his best races sprinting, and should appreciate the turnback in distance after making a premature backstretch move going two turns last time. It concerns me that he has shown a tendency to break slowly in recent starts, but I think he's fast enough to overcome a little adversity and still beat this field. I'll use him with longshot Dark Roast, who rarely wins but has been facing much better fields in his recent starts.

Win: 3
Exacta Box: 3 with 1,2,6,7
 
 

RACE 4: LOYAL HEART (#5)
Ducasa is likely to take plenty of money here, but I don't have full confidence that she can handle this stretch-out in distance again. When she won two back, she got an absolutely perfect setup, riding a strong rail to victory after setting slow fractions. She is predicted to receive a favorable pace scenario again, but I still want others. I'm hoping that Loyal Heart gets a more aggressive ride from the apprentice rider today. This filly has run deceptively well on a few occasions with some valid excuses. She faced better fields than the one she meets today in two of her last three starts, and I think she's one of the few runners in this group that could offer significant value.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6,9
 
 

RACE 6: LADY CHOCOLOTTA (#2)
Ice Palace has been underperforming at relatively short prices despite the fact that she has been steadily dropping in class over her past few starts. She's run well enough to win this race on a number of occasions, but she is not the kind of favorite that I want to be supporting. Once you get past her, this race is fairly wide open, largely due to the fact that there is not a confirmed frontrunner signed on. That's why I'm taking a small shot with Lady Chocolotta. She's in need of a form reversal, but she's run well going two turns over this inner track surface in the past. Her last race can simply be thrown out since she lost all chance at the start and was eased. The Pace Projector indicates that she is fast enough to lead this field from gate to wire if Antonio Gallardo decides to be aggressive. It's a bit of a stretch, but I think you want to get a little creative in this race.

Win/Place: 2
 
 

RACE 8: MYFOURCHIX (#3)
Burn Control and Anydayismyday both come into this race off excellent efforts in their prior starts. However, they were both inflated prices that day and will be a fraction of those odds this time. Either can certainly win, but I think one of their rivals will offer better value this time. Myfourchix put in an encouraging effort when she returned to the races this winter, making a middle move before flattening out against the in-form Kalabaka in January. She disappointed two back, but got back on track with her best performance of this meet last time. Rated off a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs), she launched a wide run around the far turn and did well to get up for second. She has run plenty of races that could put her in the winner's circle, and I think she could sit a good trip just off the speeds this time.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 3 with 2,4 with 1,2,4,5