by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: THIRSTY ACTOR (#5)
It's never a good sign when Linda Rice claims a horse and runs it back for a cheaper price tag. She's a great judge of how her horses are doing and where they should realistically be placed, so it's usually a sign that she feels she hasn't made the best claim. I suppose her runner Valhalla will win this if he merely repeats his last race, but I think he's a bit vulnerable at a very short price. I'm taking a shot against him with Thirsty Actor. This horse didn't run that badly in his debut when earning a respectable 75 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He didn't handle the mud two back, and last time he was cooked early while contesting an extremely fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in TimeformUS PPs) that totally fell apart. I like this turnback for a horse who actually has a pedigree that is definitely geared more toward sprinting.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,7
 
 

RACE 6: SHUT YOUR TRAPPE (#1)
This race presents a situation where pace-based numbers like TimeformUS Speed Figures really come in handy. While Shut Your Trappe hasn't necessarily run final times that make him a standout in this race, his TimeformUS Speed Figures tell a different story. He has been involved in very fast paces (indicated by red color-coding in TimeformUS PPs) in each of his last two starts, which have justifiably elevated his speed figures in those races. Two back, he was facing much tougher starter-allowance foes and actually ran quite well after chasing the very quick Cinderela el Crome. Then, last time, he ran off early and wired the field, easily putting away his early rivals, who finished far back. He got leg weary in the late stages but had a right to get tired in a race that was otherwise dominated by closers.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,7
 
 

RACE 7: LADY LUCIANO (#5)
At first glance, I was tempted to go with horses like Non Finisce Mai and Krista's Persona, who have both run competitive races against tougher company in the past. However, their recent performances suggest that they've gone off form, and they're unlikely to offer much value here anyway. Instead, I'm going to let the TimeformUS Pace Projector guide me and have therefore landed on Lady Luciano. There just isn't much early speed in this race, and she is predicted to be leading early in a situation favoring the front-runner. I know this seems like a negative claim, but Randi Persaud is certainly capable of winning with these types of runners on the inner track. I also like that they've named an apprentice rider that has been very aggressive with speed horses. This mare has run well enough on a number of occasions recently.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,8
 
 

RACE 8: VIRTUAL MACHINE (#5)
Tathqeef is probably the horse to beat as he ships up from Florida. His stateside debut, which marked his first start on dirt, was an encouraging effort. After chasing a fast pace through the early stages, he put away his rivals with an early move to the lead and was just run down by the closing Frammento late. If he moves forward off that effort, he is likely to win this race. However, he faces some legitimate foes in this spot. Cards of Stone appeared to return to form last time, and Winning Road has been quickly improving in recent starts. Yet my top pick is another runner making his second start off a layoff. Virtual Machine easily defeated some overmatched rivals to win his maiden last time, and the performance may have been even better than it appears. Feb. 16 was a day that featured a strong inside bias, and Virtual Machine raced wide around both turns. This horse showed plenty of class as a 3-year-old and has taken a step forward this year. I believe he is the biggest threat to Tathqeef.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with ALL
 
 

RACE 9: DEAN VERDILE (#8)
Much like today's seventh race, this finale is lacking any confirmed front-runners. The Pace Projector is predicting that Ganador will be sent out to the front, but I have trouble latching onto a horse who is exiting $5,000 claiming races at Laurel. Instead, I'm hoping that apprentice Rayan Gazader, who also pilots Lady Luciano in the seventh, can finally get Dean Verdile to regain his natural early speed. This horse has been uncharacteristically sluggish in many of his recent starts, but Gazader was finally able to get him closer to the pace with a more hustling ride last time. Notably, that race featured some speedy rivals, and this one does not. Dean Verdile has shown himself to be pretty game when he gets to the front, so I'm hoping that's the case here.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,5,6