by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: ALL ABOUT ASHLEY (#5)
I have trouble trusting most of the short-priced runners in this race. I suppose that H Man deserves to be the favorite, but it's really hard to find excuses for his last race. He had appeared to be in great form for Linda Rice, but it all fell apart when he finished last as the 3-2 favorite. Now he drops sharply in class, which is never a good sign for this barn. I have similar concerns about David Jacobson's pair of Saratoga Heater and John's Island. Both are classier individuals than most of their rivals, but their recent form is cause for concern. Therefore, I've landed on All About Ashley. He, too, is dropping, but it's not the same kind of class plunge that the others are taking. He ran well in each of his last two efforts around two turns, but I actually don't mind the turnback in distance. He ran well enough in sprint races last fall and appears to be in even better form now.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,7
 
 

RACE 6: SIR MAURICE (#1)
When plodding runners like That Makes Sense are the morning-line favorites in sprint races that feature questionable pace scenarios, you know you've found a decent wagering opportunity. I don't know how anyone could support this horse in such a situation. He might win through sheer attrition, but he won't do it with my support. I'm instead going to take a shot with Sir Maurice. This horse has had to overcome a ton of adversity in his recent starts. Two and three back, he was too aggressively ridden on the backstretch and ended up making premature moves into fast paces. Then, last time, he found himself rating behind a very slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in PPs) in a race that was wired on the front end. He's run well enough going shorter on occasion to suggest that he can handle the turnback.

Win/Place: 1
 
 

RACE 7: PEACHES AND SPICE (#7)
There are at last four runners in this race who prefer to race on or near the lead, so it's no surprise that the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. Furthermore, a few of those runners may not be as strong contenders as their recent form suggests. Both She's Had Enough and Spirit Lets Hearit benefitted from inside biases in their last two starts (their only races going a route of ground), which undoubtedly helped them carry their speed. I'll be surprised if they're able to repeat those efforts while facing more early pressure here. This race appears to set up for a late runner. The logical choice is Rimanisempreforte, who has won two in a row at this distance. However, I'm equally as interested in the filly who finished a length behind her last time. Peaches and Spice has been steadily improving for a low-profile barn over the past few months and now gets a positive rider switch to Junior Alvarado. She's a one-run closer who is supposed to get the kind of fast pace that she needs to be successful, and she figures to go off at a much higher price than her aforementioned rival.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,6,8
Trifecta: 7,8 with 7,8 with 1,3,6
 
 

RACE 8: TOP BRASS (#4)
The first thing to notice about this race is the Pace Projector. While I'm not the biggest fan of Hey Jabber Jaw, he is predicted to be racing on a clear early lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. While there are a few pace-pressing types in the field, he is the only horse who is certain to be sent to the lead. Horses like Jan's Reserve and The Gomper are both interesting contenders, but their late-running styles may not be conducive to success in this race. I'm more interested in a horse who figures to be pressing the early pace. Top Brass, who had previously been more of a midpack runner, was aggressively ridden last time out and ran the best race of his career. The pace was not extremely fast, but the race flow did not favor the front-runners. The minor placings were dominated by closers, while all the horses who had been battling with Top Brass early fell by the wayside. This is a step up in class, but I think that performance is better than it appears. Jason Servis has fantastic numbers with horses coming off wins (DRF Formulator Stat: Over the past 5 years, he is 32/108 – 30% – with a $2.19 ROI when bringing last-out winners back off 50-100 day layoffs.). His jockey Manny Franco has been riding more aggressively this winter.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5,6,7
Trifecta: 4 with 3,5,7 with 2,3,5,6,7,8