by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: POLAR JET (#2)
Dhamaan is the horse to beat, having run the fastest speed figures in the field. However, he's going to be a very short price coming off the claim by David Jacobson, and you have to wonder how much he will able to improve on the job that Kiaran McLaughlin did with this runner. He may not have to improve, but I do believe Dhamaan faces a serious threat from Polar Jet, the runner posted just to his outside. Polar Jet ran deceptively well in his debut. While he was starting for this same claiming tag as he is today, that was an especially fast race for the level. The 94 Race Rating assigned to that event suggests that it was a far tougher group than the field he meets today. Polar Jet was slow into stride and green early, but really was running on well late. He was picked up out of that race by Charlton Baker, who gets a 99 TimeformUS Trainer Rating off the claim.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3
 
 

RACE 2: SKY FIFTYFIVE (#1)
Runners like That Makes Sense and Ballivor are likely to take money here, but both are late-running types and I think it's reasonable to question whether they will get enough pace to close into. The TimeformUS Pace Projector clearly indicates that Sky Fiftyfive will be racing on a clear early lead in a situation that is predicted to favor the frontrunner. There are other runners in this race that are sometimes forwardly placed, but Sky Fiftyfive should be committed to making the front from his rail post. This horse ran well last time when he dueled through fast fractions (indicated by red color-coding in TimeformUS PPs) before getting run down late. A repeat of that 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure should make him tough to beat this time.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,7
 
 

RACE 5: PESCARA (#2)
I'm not convinced that fillies like Giant Ending and New York Bourbon really want two turns, while maiden special weight droppers Empty House and Tequila Sunday are just plodders that will need the pace to collapse. I want to take a shot against all of them with longshot Pescara. She's too slow based on her debut, but she was her own worst enemy at the start of that race. The chart comment makes no mention of this, but she was off slowly, and her rider actually lost the irons in the first furlong. Once he regained his footing, Pescara greenly ducked out entering the clubhouse turn, apparently reacting badly to kickback. She never made a run in the stretch, but the track was extremely tiring that day. She should have gained needed fitness from that race, and she is supposed to handle this distance as a half-sister to the long-winded Shades of Indygo.

Win/Place: 2
 
 

RACE 6: FROSTY LADY (#9)
Unless longshot Perina's Pride is able to regain the speed she showed for the Bill Mott barn, Frosty Lady could be loose on the lead in this spot. I know that her dirt races don't look very encouraging at first glance, but we may not have seen the best of what she has to offer over this surface. Her first dirt race came as one of two starts she made for a low percentage barn at the start of her career. She actually ran better than she did in her turf debut. From there she improved when switched into Dominick Schettino's care. She went back to dirt last time, but clearly detested the muddy going from the moment the gates opened. She has enough pedigree to handle this surface, and new rider Rosario Montanez has been aggressive with speed horses at this meet. If she gets loose early, she could take them all the way up front.

RACE 7: ATLANTIS ROMANCE (#3)
Felini was installed as the morning line favorite, but I'm starting to wonder how good she really is. Her lopsided maiden victory came against a pitiful field and it's hard to find excuses for her poor showing against winner last time. Given a short price on her, I'm interested in others. While Felini possesses tactical speed, I'm not sure that she's quite as fast as Atlantis Romance in the early going. In fact, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that this filly will be on the lead in a situation favoring the frontrunner. She lost in her prior start at Aqueduct in February, but that came against a stronger field when she was part of a contested pace that was falling apart late. She followed that up with a good third at Parx behind the talented So You Know, earning the highest last-out TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field. She'd offer great value at anything close to her 12-1 morning line.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,7