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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 5: Claiming $25,000 at 8.5 furlongs on turf

This is one of a few very difficult turf races on this card. While a number of runners can win, the horse that interests me most is INDIAN STARLIGHT (#7). I know she was somewhat disappointing in her return last time, but she also never had a fair chance after a less-than-ideal trip. For whatever reason, Jose Lezcano was intent on reining her in to get her back off the pace, and the strategy backfired. He ended up getting shuffled back through the field, winding up in last place at the top of the stretch. She could muster only a mild rally through the stretch but had already had most of her momentum taken away. Today she is supposed to be more forwardly placed in a situation that the Pace Projector is indicating will favor frontrunners.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5,11,12

Race 7: Allowance at 8.5 furlongs on turf

This is another very tricky affair. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but I think there are reasons to be a bit optimistic if you're interested in a horse with speed--which I am. It clearly shows MORETHANJUSTHELLO (#2) out in front early, but the runners that figure to be racing behind her, forcing the pace, are not exactly need-the-lead types, or even primarily frontrunners. So often we see riders concede to the one horse that shows early initiative, making for a much slower pace than anticipated, and I have a feeling we could see a similar scenario play out here. As long as Morethanjusthello doesn't have to run too fast to get position towards the front of the pack, I think she's a major threat to win this race. After all, her recent form is better than it appears. She was overmatched in some tough spots over the summer, but ran quite well last time against some decent allowance horses. I'm not at all concerned with the stretch-out to two turns, since she's handled route distances in the past and even owns a win over this course.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,6,7,9

Race 8: Allowance at 6 furlongs

I admit that I was interested in LOS BORRACHOS (#9) last time out, and while I'm reluctant to go back to the same horse, I think there's reason to be more enthusiastic about his chances today. First of all, while he got some pace to close into last time, it appears that there's even more speed signed on for this race. The Pace Projector isn't predicting a fast pace, but it does show three horses that will all be vying for the front, including Mewannarose, who set the pace last time. Add the quick Lord Commander to that group, and I think we'll see an early clip that is at least honest. Secondly, Los Borrachos may benefit from spending more time in new trainer Abigail Adsit's barn. While she has mediocre numbers with horses making their first start off the claim (54 trainer rating), she gets a much stronger 77 trainer rating second off the claim.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,4,7,8

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight at 8.5 furlongs on turf

I'm interested in two horses in the finale, both of which should be decent prices. My top pick is CIAO BELLA MIA (#2). This filly did absolutely no running in her dirt debut, but her pedigree suggests that was simply the wrong surface. Her sire, Smart Bid, was a multiple graded stakes winning turf runner who earned over $800,000 on that surface, and her dam was a four-time turf winner in her own right. There is some strong grass pedigree here and I think we'll see a completely different horse today.

The other filly I want to use is SILLY NUMBERS (#12). She lost the rider coming to the top of the stretch in her last start, but she had been traveling well up until that point and actually appeared to be in the midst of commencing a run when she apparently clipped heels with the horse ahead of her. She drew a disadvantageous post position today, but she might have a little bit of grass ability, even though her published running line doesn't necessarily suggest that.

Win/Place: 2,12
Exacta Key Box: 2,12 with 2,6,8,9,11,12