>Visit TimeformUS for Friday's Highlight Horse and PPs

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 4: Maiden Claiming $25,000 at 6.5 furlongs

Buckwellspent (#7) is the horse to beat but haven't we had enough of him? He's been in the money in five straight starts at relatively short prices and has just failed to get it done. The obvious alternative is Agronomy (#2), who ran speed figures out in California that would almost certainly beat this field. However, it is a little weird that his new connections ran him on turf first time out and are now dropping him in class off that performance despite his much better dirt form.

At a bigger price, I prefer the runner to his inside, INDIAN SOLDIER (#1). He is also coming off a subpar performance, but that was his first start off a lengthy layoff, and it came against a much tougher field. It also didn't help that he was bumped at the start and had to rush up into contention in the first quarter mile. Now he takes a logical drop in class, and may play out as the main speed from the rail. Going back to last winter, it took him a couple of starts to race into fitness, but he actually ran some speed figures that would make him competitive here.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,7,8

Race 5: Claiming $35,000 at 8 furlongs on turf

There is plenty of speed signed on for this race, including some stretching-out sprinters that figure to force the pace. While it's never wise to handicap for a total pace collapse on the Aqueduct turf course, it does seem as if the early fractions should at least be honest. That should suit SATURDAY BLISS (#1), who does her best running from midpack. This mare has simply faced tougher company in almost all of her recent turf starts, and she's actually run fairly well. I can't fault her for losing to more talented New York-breds like Capriana, Ack Naughty, and Feeling Bossy. Today, I expect her to work out the right kind of trip under Antonio Gallardo, who has been riding well at this meet. She figures to get the jump on more plodding types such as Ten Penny Princess and Lady Lucky.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5,8,9
Trifecta: 1 with 2,4,5,8,9 with 2,4,5,8,9

Race 7: Allowance at 8 furlongs on turf

While I'm not totally convinced that FIRE KEY (#2) will be able to negotiate the two turns of today's race, since she has been a turf sprinter up until this point, I still think she is easily the most interesting horse in this race. Transferred to Pat Kelly for her second start, she ran well to win, setting a fast pace and holding on gamely in the stretch. She was stepped up against tougher allowance company in her next start and actually ran a much stronger race than the published running line would suggest. She was off a legitimate two lengths slowly in that race and had to rush into contention to get position in the opening furlongs. Despite a three-wide trip, she actually was closing resolutely in the final furlong to just miss third. That new dimension should serve her well here in a race where she will almost certainly have to rate off the pace. I don't think we've yet seen the best of Fire Key, and she should offer some value given the presence of more reliable—but not necessarily exciting—options like Cashconsiderations (#1) and Tapa Liath (#8).

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,8

Race 8: Allowance at 6 furlongs

This is a very difficult race because almost all of the logical contenders possess speed, and I tend to agree with our Pace Projector, which indicates that the pace will be quick. While I acknowledge that my top selection has not run as fast as some of her competitors recently, I wonder if MOONDANCE JOY (#10) might just be in the right place at the right time. This mare is certainly capable of launching strong runs from well back in the pack when she gets some pace to close into, as she displayed in many races earlier in her career. In recent starts, she's shown more tactical speed, but I would expect Joel Rosario to revert to deep-closing tactics today given the projected race flow. She's raced on turf quite a bit recently, but I think she's actually a better dirt runner. Dave Cannizzo's numbers off the claim aren't stellar (50 trainer rating), but he does do quite well when pairing with Joel Rosario (87 rating).

Win/Place: 10