by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: LADY LUCIANO (#4)
Picture Day was made the favorite on the morning line, but the Pace Projector is predicting that this race will feature a pace that favors horses on or near the lead and she is a confirmed closer. For that reason, I want to focus on the two runners most likely to be forwardly placed in the early going. They are Ducasa and Lady Luciano. Ducasa is coming off a win against slightly weaker foes. While she did successfully negotiate two turns that day, she is more of a sprinter and should be suited by this turnback in distance. She makes sense, but I prefer the other speed, Lady Luciano. This mare was simply overmatched last time and was also involved in a pace that ultimately collapsed. In her start before that, she got a terrible trip. After breaking slowly, she was never able to get over toward the inside and ended up making a four-wide premature move around the far turn. I think she’s in better form than it appears and figures to work out a good trip.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,7
 
 

RACE 5: KOHLHASE (#6)
The class of this field is clearly Fearless Dragon, who is dropping out of Gulfstream’s Poseidon Stakes and turning back in distance. Prior to being overmatched last time, he had actually run quite well in a series of races in Florida. He was a good third behind the talented Zulu three back and then ran well when coming through a tight spot on the rail two back. The main question surrounding him is whether or not he can negotiate six furlongs. The pace of this race suggests that he may have his work cut out for him. I prefer the runner drawn to his outside, Kohlhase. He possesses speed and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be right up on the pace in a situation favoring the frontrunners. He couldn’t quite negotiate the seven furlongs two back, but he ran better last time at Laurel, finishing second to a next-out winner. I would also use him with fellow speed type Dark as Midnight, who is a bit slower but should offer decent value.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,5
Trifecta: 6 with 3,5 with 1,2,3,5
 
 

RACE 6: MEGAN’S MUSE (#1)
Sea Pebble may just control this race on the front end, but I don’t fully trust her. I also think there are some horses in this race that may be used to go after in the early stages. California Wildcat gets a rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche, who tends to be aggressive with these types, and I have to believe they’ll try to send Glotona Again after those tactics were successful last time. I’m hoping that enough pace develops to set things up for Megan’s Muse. This filly ran pretty well the last time she was turned back in the mud back in November. While the winner, Ducasa, set a fast pace and was unquestionably the best horse that day, she would also be an odds-on favorite in this spot. I think it’s possible that Megan’s Muse is actually more of a sprinting type and I think she finds herself in a good spot. Gary Sciacca has done decently off the claim recently.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,6
 
 

RACE 7: MIDNIGHT CHAMPAGNE (#3)
This race is filled with horses that I just don’t really want to bet. I typically love turnbacks, but Jcs American Dream is not your typical turnback. This filly is a confirmed router and has never run shorter than a mile in her 32-start career. Why is she supposed to appreciate six furlongs now? Lightning Lily is the kind of turnback that does interest me since she has actually run a few competitive sprint races in her career. She earned a competitive speed figure last time, but some horses have come back out of that race to underperform, which concerns me. She also is piloted by a rider who has not had much success this winter. Ultimately, I landed on the likely controlling speed Midnight Champagne. The Pace Projector is predicting that this mare is just faster than these in the early going in a scenario that is supposed to favor the frontrunners. She has run plenty of races that would beat this field and Chris Englehart has strong overall numbers with runners coming off layoffs of this type (91 Trainer Rating).

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,5
Trifecta: 3 with 2,4 with ALL