by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: MATINEE BABE (#5)
I don’t trust the favorites in this race. Special Risk has looked awful in her last two efforts after getting her career off to a promising start this summer, and Rudy Rodriguez’s recent cold spell does not inspire confidence. The same can be said of Courtmewithcarats, who now switches to Danny Gargan’s barn while showing a declining speed figure pattern. I want someone else, and am interested in Matinee Babe at a bit of a price. She’s made three of her four starts on turf, but her lone dirt race is really not that bad. The 74 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned for the effort puts her in the mix and she had some subtle traffic trouble at the top of the stretch in that race. I also think she’s going to appreciate this turnback in distance after fading in her two recent route races. Dave Cannizzo has fairly encouraging turf-to-dirt numbers, getting a 78 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with that move.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Box: 5,7

RACE 5: GREEN GRATTO (#1)
Slowly but surely Green Gratto has been regaining top form. He first showed some signs of his old self in the Bold Ruler three back, and his two efforts since have been steps in the right direction. Despite the fact that he typically is not at his best over wet racetracks, he showed his customary grit in the late stages of the Gravesend, as he battled back for second after getting passed by heavy favorite Stallwalkin’ Dude in the last eighth. That one is back in the starting gate today, but this time he does not get his preferred wet track. He also must overcome a pace scenario that the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting to favor the frontrunner – Green Gratto. You can be sure that Kendrick Carmouche will be sending this horse from the rail and I think he may still have it in him to turn the tables on his rival and win this Toboggan.

Win/Place: 1
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 1,6 with 2,5,7 with 1,6

RACE 6: NIGHT MADAM (#5)
The vast majority of horses in this race have done their best running on turf rather than dirt, so you have to do some digging to find any positive dirt form. Resilient One is the horse to beat since her dirt races are passable, but the fact remains that she’s going to get bet off the strength of her turf races and this is a very suspicious drop in class. Saturday Bliss is also dropping in class, though this one is a bit less alarming. However, this 10-pound bug rider must work out a trip from the outside post position. I think this is a good spot to get creative, so I’m taking a shot with Night Madam. I know her recent speed figures suggest that she’s too slow, but she is one of the few horses in this race that has run some of her best races going long on the dirt. I don’t know why her connections have focused on sprint races recently since she’s simply too slow to win going six furlongs. Aaron Gryder should have Night Madam forwardly placed early and I feel that I can at least rely on her to put forth an honest effort in a race where more than a few of the shorter prices could underperform.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,8,10

RACE 7: SPLENDID GOLD (#1)
Was Splendid Gold simply overmatched in her last two starts against N2X New York-bred allowance foes, or has she lost a step? It was only six weeks ago that she dominated a field at this level, so I find it hard to believe that she would have completely lost her form so quickly. Rather, I think she just worked out the wrong trips in her last two races. On both occasions, her riders were not particularly aggressive early and she ended up getting shuffled back behind moderate paces. She reacted badly to the kickback and never got involved. Rosario Montanez rides her today and figures to be much more aggressive from this rail post position. If she can attain a forward early position, I think she’ll be tough for these to handle.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,8