by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS for this card's Highlight Horse and PPs

RACE 3: JET MAJESTY (#6)
The two shortest prices on the morning line are Kalabaka and Catsadiva, but I don’t trust either. The horse that I want instead is Jet Majesty. I know that she’s been campaigned primarily on turf lately, but she has run plenty of dirt races that would put her in the mix against this field. Further, she’s one of the few runners with speed in the race and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the frontrunners. David Jacobson does well first off the claim (89 TimeformUS Trainer Rating), and particularly well with horses switching from turf to dirt off the claim (DRF Formulator Fact: 21 for 63, $2.63 ROI).

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5

RACE 4: SUMMER SCUFFLE (#6)
All of the major contenders in this race have some questions. The likely favorite is Dublin Girl, who will try to stretch out for the first time after making late runs sprinting. However, Dominick Schettino gets only a 51 trainer rating with horses making their initial starts in routes. I want someone else, so my top selection is a horse with a different question to answer. Summer Scuffle has never raced on dirt, yet she’s certainly bred to do so as a full sister to multiple dirt stakes winner Loki’s Vengeance. She ran like a horse that needed her debut on turf, making a mild late impact while never really being asked for much by her rider. I expect her to put in a more professional effort here.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5,7,8

RACE 6: KOWBOY BOOTS (#11)
Beach Hut is the obvious horse to beat, but do you really trust him at a short price? Sure, he’s getting a positive trainer switch to David Jacobson, but you typically want to see these kinds of horses moving up in class after being claimed off low-percentage connections. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which could help set up the late runs of some longshots. The one that interests me most is Kowboy Boots. I know this horse’s recent races suggest he’s too slow, but Chris Englehart has great numbers with horses making their second starts off the claim (91 trainer rating). Further, this horse has been going long recently when he’s really more of a sprinter. He’s been in some low-percentage barns during the past year, so I think it’s wise to be a little forgiving of his recent form. I don’t know if he’s still capable of running a competitive race, but he will be a generous price.

Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2,5,9,12

RACE 7: HEAD SHRINKER (#7)
If Lead Us to the Bar draws into this race, she will add some intrigue but she’s not the kind of horse I want to bet as a favorite, especially when there are other interesting fillies in here at better prices. Five Star Rampage put in a breakout performance last time and could be the main speed from the inside. Storm Cell’s last race is not as bad as it looks and she may appreciate the turnback. I’ll use those two, but my top pick is Head Shrinker. While I don’t typically like to bet horses off 11-month layoffs, this filly was running fast enough to be competitive in a race like this when she was a newly turned 3-year-old. With any kind of improvement since, she’d be a major player in this race. It was no disgrace losing to Clipthecouponannie last time and that speed figure holds up to scrutiny. This one could slip through the cracks.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Box: 1,7
Exacta Box: 3,7,8

RACE 8: WIN WITH PRIDE (#7)
Considering that he was stretching out in distance off just one sprint race, Takaful put in a valiant effort to be third in the Remsen. That said, I’m still not convinced that he’s truly a two-turn horse, and he will likely receive more pressure today from the very fast sprinter El Areeb. He’s the horse to beat, but I prefer the runner that finished just a head behind him in the Remsen. Win With Pride has stepped forward with each start, and I found a lot to like about his effort last time. He broke more sharply than he ever has before, and used his tactical speed to gain a forward position. When the leaders kicked away from him at the quarter pole, he never gave up and stayed on well to nearly grab third. He projects to sit a perfect trip stalking the two speeds today, and at least you don’t have to worry about the distance for him.

Win: 7
Trifecta: 3,7 with 3,7 with 1,2,4,6
Trifecta: 7 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,3,4,6