by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 5: ROLL TIDE ROLL (#4)
Despite its relatively small size, this is one of the most competitive fields on the card, as you can make a solid case for just about any of the six runners. Gentrify figures to be dangerous given that Pace Projector is predicting that his status as the lone front-runner in the field will give him an advantage. After all, his last race is better than it seems, considering that he was off slowly and had to rush up to secure the early lead. He's the horse to beat, but I think others will offer better value. My top pick is Roll Tide Roll, who makes his first start off the claim by Chris Englehart. His last race is also not as discouraging as it appears, since he was forced to race four wide for much of the run around the far turn after getting shuffled out of position on the backstretch. He actually did well to nearly regain second at the wire. I expect him to show more speed under Mike Luzzi this time.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,6
Trifecta: 4 with 1,5 with ALL
 
 

RACE 6: HELDATGUNPOINT (#1)
The horse to beat is Source Control, who will probably win this race if he repeats his last effort. The first-, second-, and fourth-place finishers all returned to significantly improve their speed figures in subsequent starts, suggesting that it was a stronger race than it originally appeared. I strongly prefer him to the likely co-favorite, Skeet Shot, who has run slower races against weaker fields. While I respect Source Control, I'm also intrigued by longshot Heldatgunpoint. He is also coming out of a deceptively strong race. He was making his debut that day, and was ridden like a horse that probably needed a start. Joel Rosario really didn't ask him for much until they were well into the stretch, at which point he actually finished up decently. A number of horses have already run back out of that race to improve, and this runner certainly has room to move forward.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Box: 1,10
 
 

RACE 7: CLUTCH CARGO (#1)
Jacala was made the morning line favorite as he faces New York-breds for the first time, but I'm not sure that he's getting any class relief as he steps up out of cheaper races. He's a contender, but I prefer local horses such as Mr. Harlan and Prophet's Cat, who both ran well at this level late last season. Their form may be strong, but neither are really winning types, so I want to take a shot against them with the lightly raced Clutch Cargo. He broke his maiden stylishly at Belmont last fall and then was never given a chance when he resurfaced against winners at Aqueduct. That November race featured a very slow pace, and Clutch Cargo was taken far back early before trying to rally through traffic in the stretch. He's better than that, and I expect an improved effort in his 3-year-old debut.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,7,10
 
 

RACE 8: FROSTY GAL (#2)
Noble Freud is a half-sister to talented New York-bred sprinters La Verdad and Hot City Girl, and she showed that familial propensity for speed in her dazzling debut effort. Also-rans have returned out of that race to confirm the lofty speed figure assigned to it. However, she's going to have to deal with the speedy Bluegrass Flag on the front end, and I have to imagine that these two will hook up early in what is basically being billed as a match race. If the pace heats up, I think that opens the door for the runner that I believe to be the only horse with a real upset chance, Frosty Gal. I know that she appears to be too slow, but she's more talented than her form suggests. She had serious trouble when racing greenly in her second start, and then put it all together last time, coming through along a dead rail to register an easy win. She's been working very well down at Gulfstream, and Barclay Tagg has surprisingly strong numbers with dirt runners that broke their maidens last time out. According to DRF Formulator, he is 4 for 14 (with 9 runners finishing in the money) for a $5.87 ROI in such situations over the past five years.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,6
Trifecta Box: 2,4,6
 
 

RACE 9: RADIAL FLYER (#9)
I know I'm getting a little creative with this selection, but hear me out. You can basically ignore Radial Flyer's dirt races, because he clearly is not a fan of that surface. He got a ridiculous ride from an apprentice in his turf debut in Florida last year. Then, in his only turf start for the Ed Barker barn, he worked out a wide trip after getting carried out on the clubhouse turn. That was a stronger effort than it seems. Now, he's shown improved speed in his dirt races since then, and he is projected to be in front early in a race that doesn't feature much speed. I don't know if he's good enough to win, but I do believe this longshot can vastly outperform his odds in a wide open race.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,5,11
Trifecta: 1,2,5,11 with 1,2,5,11 with 9