by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: MYAKKA RIVER (#1)
Mineralogy is the one they all have to catch and beat. However, I do think second-time starter Myakka River has a chance to pull off the minor upset. This horse was very green in his debut, climbing down the backstretch as he reacted badly to kick-back. He actually was making up good ground in the stretch despite losing contact with the field early. I expect him to show more speed here, and Shug McGaughey has strong numbers with this kind of runner. DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Shug is 6 for 12 (50 percent) for a $4.27 ROI with 3-year-olds-and-up second-time starting maidens in dirt sprints coming off layoffs of 60 days or less.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,6
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 3,4,6
 
 

RACE 3: MOON OVER A BEAUTY (#7)
If Wild About Deb can translate his stellar route form to this sprint race, he is simply going to win. However, I'm always a bit skeptical of late-running routers turning back in paceless races, which is the case here. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that Moon Over a Beauty is likely to lead the field early in a situation favoring the front-runner, and I think this longshot deserves a serious look. He stumbled badly at the start last time, which prevented him from running his race. He figures to be fitter in his second start off the layoff and he has run deceptively well a few times in his career.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,5
 
 

RACE 4: HOLLAND ROAD (#11)
There is a lot going on in this race. There are slew of first-time starters with interesting pedigrees, led by Christophe Clement's horse Siem Rep and David Donk's horse Admirals Cove. Of those with prior turf experience, the one most likely to attract play is Focus Group, who was second to Breeders' Cup winner Oscar Performance in his debut. I'll use all of these horses, but I'm most interested in longshot Holland Road in his turf debut. This horse is out of a dam who was a four-time turf winner and he is a full-sibling to a three-time turf winner. He showed nothing in his debut, but he could wake up with this surface switch.

Win/Place: 11
Exacta Box: 1,2,4,11
 
 

RACE 7: BOURBON EMPIRE (#6)
Bourbon Empire clearly wants no part of two turns. If he runs back to his prior efforts sprinting, where he most recently finished third behind the talented duo of Gold for the King and Sal the Turtle, he has a great chance to win this race. I just don't completely trust Cause for Surprise or T Loves a Fight, who are both coming into this race off career-best speed figures that are out of step with their prior performances.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,5,10
 
 

RACE 9: SASSICAIA (#3)
Unified looks pretty formidable off his return at Gulfstream, in which he gamely held off the late rush of next-out Dubai Golden Shaheen winner Mind Your Biscuits. He's drawn well outside of the other speeds here, but he will likely still have to tangle with Green Gratto and Awesome Banner in the early going. I hope the pace heats up a bit because I'm interested in the horses coming out of the Tom Fool. Spartiatis put in the best effort that day and is in fantastic form, but Sassicaia is the one that I want most out of the race. He was just never in a comfortable position early, racing in tight quarters between horses on the turn before getting squeezed back at the top of the stretch. He had run so well in his prior start off the layoff when closing into a moderate pace, and I feel that I need to give him one more chance to get back to that effort. He figures to be a generous price.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,6,8
Trifecta: 3,8 with 3,8 with 2,5,6
 
 

RACE 10: CLOUD COMPUTING (#7)
Normal horses aren’t able to cope with being thrown into a major Kentucky Derby prep race after winning their debut going six furlongs just three weeks prior. However, Cloud Computing not only coped, but he distinguished himself with a game second-place finish in one of the fastest preps we’ve witnessed all season. It takes an extraordinary horse to win a race like the Wood Memorial in just a third career start, but I think Cloud Computing may just be that kind of animal.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,8
Trifecta: 7 with 3,8 with 2,3,4,5,8
Trifecta: 7 with 2,4,5 with 3,8