by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 4: ROBBINS (#6)
Of those with experience, the one likely to take the most play is True Timber, and justifiably so. Kiaran McLaughlin gets a 96 trainer rating with second-time starters, and this colt actually did a fair bit of running through the stretch in his debut after getting shuffled back early. While I'll certainly use him, I slightly prefer the runner just to his inside, who figures to offer better value. Robbins has not run as badly as it might seem in his two career starts. He was very wide in his debut against a track that has been coded as speed-favoring. In his second start, he had the misfortune of running into the most impressive two-year-old maiden winner we saw this year, Takaful. Now he gets Lasix for the first time and finds himself in what looks to be a softer spot. Don't be surprised if he wakes up today at a price.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,5,7

RACE 6: HARD HITTER (#1)
Ekhlaas has to be considered the horse to beat despite the fact that he was soundly defeated at Keeneland last time. Kiaran McLaughlin isn't known for raking in the wins in Kentucky, and this horse lost all chance after missing the break. While I respect him, I have my eye on an alternative that figures to get overlooked in the wagering. Hard Hitter's return to the races may seem somewhat dull at first glance, but it's worth noting that the rail appeared to be dead on November 16, and he was in the inside path for his entire trip. I acknowledge that this Linda Rice trainee looks a bit slow, but it's also very likely that we haven't yet seen the best of him. Linda Rice gets a 97 trainer rating with horses making their second starts back from a layoff. Furthermore, he showed flashes of ability early in his three-year-old year, and it's reasonable to assume that he has improved since then.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,6,7

RACE 7: PEPPI THE HUNTER (#8)
The main players in this race all possess speed, so something is going to have to give on the front end. Indeed, our Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so the closers in the field figure to be at an advantage. The one that most will flock to is Ackeret for Rudy Rodriguez, but it's fair to wonder what we're going to get from this horse as he exits the Jorge Navarro barn and has a low-percentage rider listed. I'm interested in Peppi the Hunter at a more generous price. This three-year-old may be catching a suspect group of older horses at the right time. His recent form suggests he's more of a turf horse, but he ran just fine on dirt early in his career, even winning a couple of sprints from off the pace. Collin Maragh has done quite well with this turf-to-dirt move.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,5,7

RACE 8: PAULASSILVERLINING (#6) – CALLISTA (#7)
I'm not trying to beat heavy favorite Paulassilverlining, whose 2016 form makes her virtually untouchable. However, I will be playing the exacta in this race using Callista in the runner-up position. This filly has caught slow pace after slow pace in her dirt sprints and should finally get more honest early fractions to close into today. I know she's slower than some of the other challengers, but her last race is better than it looks, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a forward move from this lightly raced filly.

Exacta: 6-7
Trifecta: 6 with 7 with 1,2,4

RACE 9: NO ENTIENDO (#4)
Likely favorite Buckwellspent beat a very weak field when breaking his maiden last time, and I think he'll be hard-pressed to find his way back to the winner's circle today. Watch the Tie and Daggerpoint have each run races that are fast enough to win today, but do you really trust either one at relatively short prices? I want someone else, so I'm taking a shot with No Entiendo. He was ridden as if his last race was merely a prep, as his rider made little attempt to get a forward early position and only really asked him to run through the stretch, at which point he responded well. There is little to no early speed in this race, so there is a prime opportunity for this horse to wire the field if Dylan Davis can get him to flash the speed that he possessed earlier in his career.

Win/Place: 4