>Visit TimeformUS for Saturday's Highlight Horse and PPs

RACE 1: THE CARETAKER (#1)

I'm usually not the type to endorse horses that are part of coupled entries, since they tend to be underlays, but I just have trouble getting past The Caretaker in this race. Perhaps he doesn't necessarily look much faster than his foes, but he's run extremely well in both career starts. He overcame a slow pace to make a late impact in his debut, and then finished full of run last time after showing improved early speed. Kiaran McLaughlin has exceptional numbers with horses coming off maiden wins (97 trainer rating) and does especially well with stretch-outs in these scenarios. If he's not up to the task, his coupled stablemate Mr. Buff is certainly a capable stand-in.

Win: 1

Trifecta: 1 with 3,4 with 3,4,6,7

RACE 2: TIMBER (#2)

Holding Aces is obviously the horse to beat, but do you really trust him off the claim by Dominick Schettino after losing at a short price last time? I'm taking a shot against him with Timber. They tried to turn Timber into a turf horse during the past few months due to his pedigree for that surface, but it just didn't work out. However, if you isolate his dirt races, he's actually run well enough to be a factor here. I know that his last race looks a little disappointing, but he got an awkward trip. Ruben Silvera put him into an all-out drive a sixteenth of a mile into the race, and then reined him in as soon as he got going. He ended up in an even worse position and actually finished well to be third. I like the claim by Chris Englehart and think he's realistically placed today.

Win/Place: 2

Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,7

RACE 4: MAZMANIA (#3)

How I play this race will, in part, depend on how the first-time starters get bet. The one that figures to attract the most support is Land Mine, a half-sister to Grade 1 stakes-placed Bar of Gold. However, Mike Hushion does better with horses who have a start under their belts. Of those that have run, the one that I find most intriguing is Mazmania. This filly has run better than it appears in each of her last two starts. In both of those races she was hustled by her riders through the early stages while contesting strong paces before hanging in gamely despite fading late. Today, I'd like to see Irad Ortiz ride her more patiently. She's earned some of the fastest speed figures in the field, yet she's likely to go off at a square price.

Win/Place: 3

Exacta Key Box: 3 with 7,9,10,11

RACE 6: MY GOLDEN ROSE (#1) – DEVINE UNION (#10)

The runner likely to attract the most attention at the windows is Lockdown, a full-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Close Hatches. While her debut was encouraging enough, I actually prefer a different horse out of that race. Whereas Lockdown was able to make a prolonged, unencumbered run, Devine Union found all sorts of trouble racing inside of her on the far turn. The Chad Brown filly got caught behind a tiring runner coming to the quarter pole, lost all her momentum, and was forced to swing to the far outside to re-rally. She actually did quite well to nearly get up for second. I'll use her strongly, but I also have my eye on a second-time starter, who figures to go off at a much bigger price. My Golden Rose didn't do that much running in her debut, but she figures to move forward off that effort for Michelle Nevin, whose horses typically need a race. Nevin gets a fantastic 95 trainer rating with runners trying a route for the first time, and this filly is certainly bred to stretch out.

Win/Place: 1

Win: 10

Trifecta Box: 1,5,10

Trifecta: 1,10 with 1,5,10 with 3,4,8,9

RACE 8: SUNNY RIDGE (#3)

The Pace Projector clearly shows that Bay of Plenty has a tactical advantage over his foes. He is the lone speed in the race, and he owns some of the fastest dirt speed figures in the field. That said, for whatever reason, his connections have focused on turf racing so far this year despite the fact that his prior dirt form was so encouraging. He hasn't run in a dirt race in over 15 months, which is cause for some concern considering that he's going to be a very short price. Most will look to Unbridled Juan as an alternative. While he's earned this step up in class, he's hardly the most reliable horse from a win perspective. I instead want to give a shot to the three-year-old, Sunny Ridge. This horse has run well enough against top-level competition on a few occasions. I know his Discovery looks disappointing at first glance, but that was a seriously deep field, and he did not get an ideal trip that day. He possesses the tactical speed to be stalking Bay of Plenty early, and he can get the distance.

Win/Place: 3

Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6